Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: the next default domino to fall? Concerns about Kenya’s public finances have intensified with the government recently delaying the payment of public employees’ salaries. Policymakers appear willing to honour public debt obligations... 3rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt default fears on the rise The IMF and foreign investors are growing increasingly concerned about the lack of reform progress from Egypt’s government. The pound appears to still be heavily managed and the government’s... 27th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Chile’s private sector cope with higher interest rates? There’s little evidence (so far) that the surge in interest rate is leading to widespread debt servicing problems in Chile’s private sector, but there are pockets of vulnerability in the household... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt restructuring in a fracturing global economy The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A breakthrough in the debt restructuring standoff? Glimmers of hope have emerged this week about unlocking the stalemate over the global debt restructuring framework, with encouraging signs for negotiations in Zambia and Ghana. But we fear that the... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina-IMF trouble ahead, Andean central banks A read between the lines of the IMF’s Fourth Review of Argentina’s $44bn Extended Fund Facility suggests that the deal could be starting to fray at the seams. Meanwhile, the latest messaging from... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hawks, Ecuador’s political crisis The new fiscal rule proposed by Brazil's Finance Ministry yesterday might have eased the central bank's fiscal concerns somewhat, but we doubt it will bring forward the timing of interest rate cuts... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary policymakers in hawkish mode, debt in focus Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all stepped up the pace of monetary tightening this week as concerns about inflation and currency weakness flared up. But we doubt that the rule of... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Most of the hit from high interest rates still to come The fixed payment structure of most variable rate mortgages has cushioned households from the impact of high interest rates so far, with the data this week confirming that debt service costs remained... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
