Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Coronavirus developments, Turkey and the IMF Governments in parts of the region have had some success in slowing the spread of the coronavirus, notably in Poland and the Czech Republic where some lockdown measures are now being eased. But there... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Economies in a stronger position to weather a new crisis Economies across Emerging Europe are heading for a sharp contraction in output, but one crumb of comfort is that vulnerabilities are drastically lower than they were in the run-up to the Global... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s power grab, Russia’s worsening outlook The Hungarian parliament’s decision to allow Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to rule by decree indefinitely has caused uproar among EU officials. For now, the European Commission is likely to do little... 3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key questions on IMF support for EMs Many EMs are now turning to the IMF for help in dealing with the fallout from coronavirus, raising questions about whether the Fund will be able to cope with the increased in demands on its purse... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of EM central bank bonds purchases EM central banks have acted swiftly in response to the coronavirus crisis, including adding bond purchases to their toolkit. These are aimed primarily at reducing credit spreads and stabilising the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM Equities in Latam and EMEA likely to outperform Given how far they have fallen, we think EM equities in Latin America and EMEA will outperform their Asian peers once the coronavirus comes under control, even if the economic fallout in the former... 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The slump in March’s manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe to levels not seen since the financial crisis are a sign of things to come and the figures for April are likely to be a lot worse. Russia... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM currencies likely to rebound, but risks remain high While the worst may be yet to come for emerging market currencies, we expect that most will end this year stronger than they are now. 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe heading for a deep recession The coronavirus has spread across Emerging Europe faster than any other region in the emerging world and governments have implemented increasingly restrictive measures to contain its spread. These... 31st March 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The widespread slump in March’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth slowed from 3.2% y/y in Q4 to around 2% y/y in Q1. But, with the... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First EM GDP contraction in post-war era The real-time economic and market disruption from the coronavirus means that much of the data released during the past month offers little insight into current developments in the emerging world... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond purchases, Russia’s containment measures The policy response across Central and Eastern Europe has become more aggressive over the past few weeks and the region’s central banks have joined a growing list of those that have started purchasing... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
