Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currencies weaken, but EM rate cuts continue Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey... 21st August 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor More to the EM export slump than the trade war The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the... 20th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown feeding into slower rental growth Slower growth in both developed and emerging economies has started to filter through into property occupier markets, with office demand generally lower than a year ago and fewer cities registering... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A decent Q2 for the region, Turkey & market turmoil The preliminary Q2 GDP figures released this week showed that Russia staged a recovery, while strong domestic demand helped growth in Central Europe to hold up well. But the early evidence suggests... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2019) The strength of the Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that domestic demand continued to offset the impact of euro-zone weakness. However, there are signs that soft external demand is... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Industry weakness, Q2 GDP & Turkey’s Bank re-shuffle Q2 GDP data due next are likely to show that growth in Central Europe remained strong. But the slump in the region’s industrial production in June provided the first clear sign that weakness in the... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about Russia’s household credit boom? The recent pace of Russian household lending looks frothy, but the central bank already appears to have taken some of the steam out of the credit boom. Even if household loans start turning sour... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Inflation Report, Russia sanctions, Polish inflation The Turkish central bank’s optimistic inflation forecasts add weight to our view that monetary easing is likely to go too far and will ultimately have to reverse course. Elsewhere, although the rise... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) July’s batch of manufacturing PMIs point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output across Central Europe at the start of Q3. While the hard activity data have so far defied the weak messages painted by... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse The recent rally in frontier sovereign dollar bonds is unlikely to be sustained and we expect spreads to widen in Argentina, Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. 30th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for July suggest that growth across Central and Eastern Europe held steady at a decent 3.5% y/y or so at the start of Q3. Strength in consumer... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Early signs that EM growth has turned the corner Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more... 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry unlikely to defy survey pessimism for long Manufacturing surveys across Central Europe have overstated the weakness of industry recently, but the strength of production growth looks unsustainable. As prolonged weakness in the euro-zone takes... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
