Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s banks, Russia’s fiscal stimulus The decision by Turkey’s banking regulator to force banks to reclassify some of their loans as non-performing will raise concerns about the health of loan books, but we think that there are bigger... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage plans, ECB stimulus The sharp increases in the minimum wage proposed by Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party have grabbed the headlines and raised concerns about the inflation outlook. But we doubt these measures will... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies will continue to struggle We doubt that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies will be able to regain any of the ground they have lost against the euro over the next year or so. The Hungarian forint is likely to be the... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine optimism overdone, robust growth in CEE Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky has hit the ground running in his bid to push key reforms through the Rada. Markets have taken these developments, as well as the strong Q2 GDP figures... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The batch of August PMIs released for Central Europe were a reassuring improvement following the plunge in July but remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial output over the coming... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly No-deal Brexit fears, political instability in Romania The growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is coming at a time when Central Europe is starting to be affected by weakness in the euro-zone and a more general slowdown in the global economy. The Czech... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown bottoms out in Q2 The raft of GDP figures published in the last few weeks suggest that, having slowed over most of the past year, aggregate EM growth ticked up in Q2. But activity is still soft and we expect that EM... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for August suggest that regional growth remained strong in Q3 at a little under 4% y/y. 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe bucking the global easing trend Central Europe is one of the few parts of the world where central banks haven’t eased monetary policy recently. Indeed, we think that the focus is likely to remain on tightening, particularly in... 28th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey tries to boost lending, Polish MPC not rushing to cut Turkish financial markets have come under pressure this week amid concerns that a shift in the central bank’s reserve requirement policy heralds more aggressive monetary easing. These developments... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The batch of Polish activity data for July suggest that strong domestic demand is offsetting weakness in export-led sectors. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth edged just below 4% y/y at the start... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Hungarian bank lending unlikely to last The recovery in Hungarian private sector credit has been an important driver of GDP growth in recent years, but we think that the credit boom doesn’t have much further to run. 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
