Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP eyes weaker zloty, Erdogan tightens economic grip Comments from Poland’s central bank this week highlighting the risk that a stronger currency would hold back the economic recovery suggests that policymakers view the exchange rate as a tool that has... 19th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates to a record low, more easing to come Russia’s central bank (CBR) didn’t disappoint at today’s meeting, cutting the key policy rate by 100bp to a new post-Soviet low of 4.50%. With disinflationary forces proving stronger than expected and... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More evidence of uneven recovery While the incoming economic data continue to point to a nascent recovery in aggregate EM activity, some countries are being left behind. Recent figures from parts of Asia (China, Korea, Vietnam and... 19th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four charts on the downturn and economic recovery The effects of lockdowns have been felt unevenly across the region, with Romania and Turkey suffering among the largest falls in both retail sales and industrial production, while activity in Latvia... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Long-term scarring, auto production, CEE inflation Recent labour market developments offer early signs that employment protection schemes in place in Central Europe have contained the hit to the labour market. This should allow activity to recover... 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal package, Ukrainians leaving Poland The three-step stimulus plan unveiled this week by Russia’s government comes late in the day. But it does suggest that policymakers are serious about the shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs repeat the message from the ESIs released last week that activity in the region rebounded in May but remained at subdued levels. As lockdowns continue to be lifted and external... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nagy resigns, EU recovery package, activity data The resignation of one of the Hungarian central bank’s key personnel this week may lead to a simplification of the monetary policy framework but is unlikely to alter the institution’s dovish bias... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
