Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of Q2 slowdown The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM growth slowed in Q2 and the forward-looking components of the survey point to a weak start to the third quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hits the buffers EM GDP growth slowed in Q1 to rates only seen a handful times in the last two decades. And while there are signs of a turnaround in some of the worst-performing economies, growth in the emerging world... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal concerns in Turkey, Hungary’s current account Investors in Turkey will be nervously waiting to see if President Erdogan can persuade President Trump at the G20 to approve Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile defence system, lifting the threat... 28th June 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth running at a three-year low EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Istanbul election won’t lead to turnaround in policymaking This weekend’s re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election will dominate the headlines in the coming days, but it looks like the result will do little to curtail the deterioration in Turkish economic... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after IMF deals? With EMs such as Argentina, Ukraine and Ecuador having recently agreed IMF deals, and others (Turkey) still looking vulnerable to a crisis, this Update looks at what happens to countries after... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we worry about fiscal policy in CEE? Fiscal stimulus packages recently announced in Central and Eastern Europe won’t trouble public debt positions, but are coming at a late stage of economic cycles. As a result, they will cause macro... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s S-400 deal, Russia’s sanction risk Turkish assets look set to come under more pressure in the coming weeks as the government pushes ahead with its plans to purchase a Russian missile defence system. Meanwhile, comments from Russia’s... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will African Swine Fever have on EMs? African Swine Fever has already pushed inflation in China up markedly and, if the disease spreads further, it could also add around 0.3%-pts to inflation in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t make a compelling case for EM assets The valuations of EM assets are not particularly low, which is one reason why we expect EM financial markets to suffer along with those elsewhere as the global economy disappoints in the coming... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech political upheaval, Russia-China ties Protests in the Czech Republic this week calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Andrej Babiš have raised the chance of a government collapse. But even if political uncertainty builds, there is... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are sovereign default risks greatest? There is growing attention on sovereign debt risks in some EMs. Vulnerabilities seem to be most acute in Argentina as well as in some of the smaller economies in the Middle East and Africa such as... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s manufacturing PMI data supports our view that growth in Central Europe will slow over the rest of this year. The recent tightening of financial conditions in Turkey appears to be weighing more... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
