Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Doves in flight, Turkey-West relations fracturing The raft of interest rate cuts and dovish noises out of central banks this week support our view that monetary policy will remain loose or be loosened further across most of the region in the near... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2019) After small net inflows in Q2, we estimate that emerging markets (EMs) experienced net outflows in Q3. With the recent detente in the trade war unlikely to continue, further capital outflows are... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM core inflation weakest on record The continued decline in core inflation across many emerging markets supports our view that most central banks’ easing cycles have further to run. Our measure of EM core inflation fell to 2.8% y/y... 18th October 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks The five-day ceasefire in Syria agreed by Turkey and the US yesterday has prompted a rally in Turkish markets and probably means that the central bank will press ahead with another large interest rate... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing a bumpy recovery The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat rises, Romania’s government falls The threat of sanctions against Turkey is growing and, given the context of the country’s large external debts, the fallout for local financial markets could prove to be more severe than that the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s CHF-mortgage loans & Turkey’s growth plan The ruling by the European Court of Justice that Polish households can potentially convert their Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans into zloty could result in bank losses, but there probably... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM economic cycle? Aggregate emerging market growth is likely to stabilise at close to 4% y/y in the coming quarters, but within this several different economic cycles are playing out. The recent resilience in Central... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks downplay expectations for more dovish policy The more hawkish-than-expected communications from central banks across the region this week suggest that markets should not get carried away with expectations for more accommodative monetary policy... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for September suggest that growth held steady at 4.0% y/y in Q3. But with the industrial surveys deeply negative and signs that... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Cracks showing in Central Europe The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) shrugged off ongoing troubles in the euro-zone economy for most of 2019 but the latest data offer evidence that this now taking a bigger toll... 26th September 2019 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks set to delay tightening further The deterioration in the external environment and willingness of the Hungarian MPC to look through above-target inflation means that monetary conditions are unlikely to change over the next twelve... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
