Emerging Markets Economic Outlook An uneven recovery An economic recovery is underway across emerging markets, but there are big differences in its speed and strength between regions and countries. China’s economy is making up lost ground rapidly and... 23rd July 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to drive a solid recovery The economies of Emerging Europe are set to bounce back more strongly from the coronavirus crisis than those in many other parts of the world. Central Europe will lead the recovery. Governments have... 22nd July 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s national projects, NBU governor, ERM II The postponement of President Putin’s flagship National Projects initiative seems to pave the way for the Prime Minister’s economic recovery plan to take centre stage over the coming years, but it... 17th July 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Activity rebounds strongly in Central Europe The rebound in retail sales and industrial production across Central and Eastern Europe in May as lockdown measures were lifted supports our view that the region will experience a relatively strong... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the tourist slump Borders are slowly re-opening across Emerging Europe, but international tourists are unlikely to return to the region in significant numbers for the key summer season. Romania and Russia are the least... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat The resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor, Yakiv Smolii, this week is unlikely to upend the country’s IMF deal, but failure to replace him with a credible candidate or backsliding on recent... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 2020) The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in June provide further signs that economic output recovered strongly at the end of Q2 as lockdown measures were lifted. While we would caution that the PMIs may... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) The broad-based rise in June’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provide further signs that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe started to get back on their feet at the end of Q2. That said, the... 29th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: CEE retail shines in weak recovery While property values have so far been slow in responding to the virus-related fallout, economic indicators suggest that occupier demand took a hit in Q2. As a result, we think that it is only a... 26th June 2020 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s referendum, Poland’s election, Turkey & MSCI Russia’s government has been pulling out the stops to increase turnout in the vote on constitutional amendments to allow President Putin to rule until 2036, but details on the government’s medium-term... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic activity recovers strongly in May and June Lockdown measures dealt a heavy blow to economies across the region in April, but the latest data offer encouraging signs that activity has recovered quickly over the past couple of months. Economic... 23rd June 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish activity data for May show that activity in the retail sector bounced back more quickly than in the industrial sector as lockdown measures were lifted. Even so, the figures support our... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
