Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weaker outlook for occupier demand A weaker outlook for bond yields in Scandinavia and Switzerland means that falls in office and industrial yields are likely to extend into 2021. However, with rental prospects weak and yields rising... 13th December 2019 · 33 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the wheels come off Central European car output? The recent strength of motor vehicle production across Central Europe will be increasingly difficult to sustain as weakness in the German economy persists. The Czech Republic’s vehicle sector is... 12th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2019) On a net basis, capital continued to flow out of Emerging Markets (EMs) last month, and we think that 2020 will be the seventh consecutive year of outflows. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Russia’s National Welfare Fund There is a growing expectation that Russia’s government will adjust the way the National Welfare Fund invests next year. In this Update, we take a closer look at what this means and explain why... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The drop in Russian inflation to just 3.5% y/y in November increases the probability of another 50bp interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next Friday although, on balance, we think a 25bp... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s domestic recovery & Hungary’s new super bond GDP and inflation figures released out of Turkey this week provided familiar signs that growth is increasingly unbalanced and we think that the central bank will ultimately be forced to reverse its... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: revisiting the risks Concerns about foreign currency debts in emerging markets have flared up again in recent weeks, but we think that the worst of these fears are probably overdone. FX debt burdens in most EMs have... 3rd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe showed a slight improvement on October’s figures but nonetheless remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial output over the... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% q/q in Q3 but the lagged effects of policy loosening mean that the recovery is likely to gather pace over the next few quarters. The authorities’... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip Interventionist policymaking in Turkey has come back onto the radar this week. This is likely to lead to a misallocation of resources and adds to the reasons to think that the country’s next crisis... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update 2021 to mark last year of falls in CEE property yields We think that while yield compression across CEE markets has further to go in the next two years, property yields will rise beyond 2021 as tighter monetary policy in the region feeds through. 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for November suggest that, after slowing to a three-year low of 3.6% y/y in Q3, regional GDP growth picked up to 4.0% y/y at the... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
