Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia stuck in the slow lane Russia's economy remained very soft in Q2, although it does at least seem to have dodged a technical recession – albeit by the skin of its teeth. Much of the weakness seems to be concentrated in the... 23rd July 2019 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey to embark on aggressive rate cuts, Ukraine elections Comments this week from Turkey’s new central bank governor, Murat Uysal, and President Erdogan suggest that an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting will be followed by further aggressive easing in... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) June’s weak batch of activity data came after two strong months and suggests that after growing by an impressive 4.7% y/y in Q1, the economy maintained a similar pace in Q2. 19th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth picked up in Q2 Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in... 19th July 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: current account risks mount Strong domestic demand means that Romania’s current account deficit, which is already among the largest of any major EM, is likely to widen further. This makes the leu increasingly vulnerable to a... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan at the wheel, inflation eases in CEE Developments in Turkey over the past week highlight that all levers of economic policy have effectively been centralised in the hands of one man – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The reaction in... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Set for a challenging second half of the year EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. 8th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly OPEC deal won’t derail Russia, lira rally may be short-lived The rollover of OPEC’s oil production quotas – announced this week – will be an unhelpful headwind for Russia’s economy, but it is unlikely to prevent growth from picking up in the second half of 2019... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of Q2 slowdown The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM growth slowed in Q2 and the forward-looking components of the survey point to a weak start to the third quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hits the buffers EM GDP growth slowed in Q1 to rates only seen a handful times in the last two decades. And while there are signs of a turnaround in some of the worst-performing economies, growth in the emerging world... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal concerns in Turkey, Hungary’s current account Investors in Turkey will be nervously waiting to see if President Erdogan can persuade President Trump at the G20 to approve Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile defence system, lifting the threat... 28th June 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth running at a three-year low EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Istanbul election won’t lead to turnaround in policymaking This weekend’s re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election will dominate the headlines in the coming days, but it looks like the result will do little to curtail the deterioration in Turkish economic... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
