Europe Economics Update German pay demands won’t see inflation surge Recent pay demands by German trade unions may look like a sign that the economy’s strength is causing a surge in inflationary pressure. But the demands are very unlikely to be met in full. We expect a... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s fall in German inflation partly reflected energy effects, and the rate is likely to rise again in the months ahead. But with core inflation still subdued in Germany and significantly weaker... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment is another sign that the economy is going great guns, but with the euro so strong the ECB seems unlikely to give a firm end date for its asset purchases... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) January’s increase in the ZEW measure of investor sentiment confirms that investors are upbeat about Germany’s economic prospects despite the recent rise in the euro. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How ambitious is the grand coalition’s plan for Germany? The fiscal proposals agreed by Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz as part of their plan to renew Germany’s grand coalition amount to a headline-grabbing 1.5% of annual German GDP and include abolishing... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Conditions ripe for uplift in German industrial rents Industrial take-up in the four main German cities continues to rise. Yet prime rents in Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich have been largely unchanged for 18 months. Even so, with occupier... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s surge in German industrial production and the widening of the trade surplus brought welcome reassurance that the economy approached the end of 2017 in very good health. What’s more, the... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Unemployment (Nov. & Dec.) The German unemployment rate held at a record low in December, suggesting that wage growth should pick up at least a little in the year ahead. So while the recent pace of employment growth seems... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Dec.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q3) December’s small decline in German Ifo business sentiment from a record high suggests that the outlook for next year is bright despite the uncertain political backdrop and the prospect of ECB QE... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI capped off a strong year and puts the economy on a very firm footing for the start of 2018. But with the survey’s price indices edging down in December, the ECB... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s dip in German ZEW investor sentiment leaves it still at a high level and suggests that investors do not see political uncertainty as a major threat to the economic outlook. 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is there any value left in German real estate? Even with prime commercial property yields in Germany plumbing new lows, investment activity is still strong. But with tighter monetary policy on the horizon, property yields are at threat from rising... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) The unexpected jump in French industrial production in October was fairly broad-based and shows that the sector made a very healthy start to Q4. Meanwhile, German trade data for the same month were... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Underlying inflationary pressures remain uneven Despite signs that core inflation in Germany picked up in November, euro-zone core inflation remained unchanged at 0.9%. This suggests that despite strong economic growth, underlying inflationary... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s drop in German industrial production largely reflected the timing of holidays – high levels of industrial orders and business confidence point to a renewed acceleration to come. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
