Europe Economics Update Which countries are most exposed to US protectionism? Germany, Belgium and particularly Ireland are the euro-zone members most exposed to US protectionism, while Portugal and the other peripheral euro-zone economies are the least exposed. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production is unlikely to be a sign of things to come, but it does suggest that the economy entered 2017 on a slightly weaker footing than the surveys have implied... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany address its “grossly undervalued” currency? The accusation by US policymakers that Germany’s currency is “grossly undervalued” is partly justified. Indeed, while the euro’s current low level seems warranted by economic fundamentals in the... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s rise in German consumer price inflation to 1.9% reflected energy effects while core inflation remained subdued. Price pressures are weaker elsewhere in the euro-zone and there is still... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s fall in the German Ifo survey suggests that the economy has lost some of the strong momentum seen at the end of last year. And while the weak euro exchange rate should boost exports in the... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey adds to case for loose ECB policy With the euro-zone economy performing fairly well and headline inflation on the up, the results of last week’s Bank Lending Survey were a timely reminder to the ECB that its job is far from done... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q4) January’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment showed that optimism about the German economy is gradually returning. The ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey revealed a further pick-up in demand for loans, but... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone wage growth set to take off? Wage growth was subdued in 2016, but the recent decline in the euro-zone unemployment rate to an 87-month low, taken in isolation, points to a strong pick-up from here. On the face of it, that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment in Germany slips, but pricing continues to firm Following a record 2015, investment activity in Germany slipped a little in 2016. However, prime office yields fell further in Q4, suggesting that investors still see value in the German market. 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s rise in German industrial production suggests that industry had a decent quarter in Q4. And with trade data also painting a positive picture of the economy, it seems likely that GDP growth... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Flash CPI (Dec.) While German inflation surged to a three-year high in December, the French rate barely increased. And with underlying price pressures still very subdued throughout the euro-zone, the ECB need not... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s German Ifo survey suggests that the economy ended the year on a high note despite political upheaval elsewhere. 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
