Europe Economics Weekly Industry won’t prevent a slowdown in overall growth The short-term outlook for euro-zone industry is positive. Surveys suggest that output growth will rise in the coming months and, if sustained, the recent decline of the euro should provide a boost... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s unchanged euro-zone Composite PMI implies that GDP growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. But the weakness of some of the hard data at the start of Q4 suggests that an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s ZEW survey suggested that investors were not too concerned about the effects of euro-zone political uncertainty on the German economy, although the index still points to a slowdown in GDP... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Signs point towards higher German industrial rents Tight supply and a positive demand outlook point towards a rise in prime German industrial rents. Indeed, we think rental growth prospects are relatively strong compared to the last ten years. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) October’s French industrial production and German trade data, combined with soft data released earlier in the week, suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Oct.) October’s German industrial production and French trade data suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth quarter than the business surveys had implied. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German inflation data suggest that euro-zone inflation was unchanged at a low level. And while energy effects should cause headline inflation to rise sharply in the months ahead, the German... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to the evidence that the economy has performed fairly well so far in Q4. However, we expect growth to slow next year, putting pressure on... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. However, we think that growth will slow over the coming quarters. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) September’s sharp drop in German industrial production partly reflected payback from a sharp rise last month, and production posted a solid gain in Q3 as a whole. Nonetheless, the data are... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How far can German property yields fall? Prime property yields in Germany continue to fall. Yet, despite being well below pre-financial crisis lows, commercial property still looks fairly valued relative to other assets. With the ultra-loose... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & German New Orders (Sep.) The fading boost to consumers’ spending power from lower energy prices may bebehind September’s fall in euro-zone retail sales. As we have warned for sometime, consumer spending growth is set to... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany-France divergence looks set to last Last week brought some good news about the euro-zone economy, with October’s composite PMI and EC ESI both pointing to an acceleration of growth. But both the hard data and survey indicators look much... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s rise in German HICP inflation to +0.7% suggests that euro-zone inflation in the same month rose to its highest level since April 2014. But in Germany at least, the rise reflected energy... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
