Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from elections in Europe this year In a busy election calendar this year, the focus will be on the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. Elections for the European Parliament in May are the most high profile event, but there will... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of GDP for 2018, and comments by the Federal Statistics Office, suggest that Germany narrowly avoided a recession last year. But this is of limited comfort: the bigger picture... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s decline in German industrial production adds to the evidence that the euro-zone’s largest economy grew at a meagre pace in Q4. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) to a twenty-seven month low adds to evidence that the slowdown in Germany is more than just a soft patch. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s industrial production data for Germany and France add to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to bounce back strongly after Q3’s slowdown in GDP growth. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rental growth in Germany to run out of steam With Germany’s labour market close to capacity, limited scope for strong employment growth will hurt office occupier demand. As new completions hit the market at the same time, we see rental growth... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to evidence that the German economy is slowing, but suggests that the particular weakness of Q3 will not be repeated at the end of the... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) The 0.2% quarterly fall in German GDP in Q3 partly reflected temporary factors, but will still serve as a warning to the ECB to bide its time before communicating any policy normalisation. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s small rise in German industrial production suggests that delays to car output are not doing quite as much damage as we had feared, but it still seems likely that GDP barely expanded in Q3. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The further fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) in October suggests that while the German economy is still growing at a decent pace, we are unlikely to see a return to the rates of growth... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
