Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & German ZEW (Apr.) February’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector had a weak Q1, but the slowdown should have been offset by stronger growth in other sectors. What’s more, the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s sharp rise in German industrial production and wider trade surplus help to reconcile the recent gap between the hard data and surveys, and imply that GDP rose sharply in Q1. But the French... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ger. & Spa. Retail Sales, French Cons. Spending (Feb.) Today’s expenditure data gave mixed messages on the health of the euro-zone’s consumer sector. While higher inflation does not appear to have hit German consumer spending in Q1, spending growth may... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, Spanish & Belgian Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s declines in headline consumer price inflation in Germany, Spain and Belgium reflected some temporary factors. But the big picture is still that underlying inflation throughout the euro-zone... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s German Ifo supported other survey evidence that growth is accelerating sharply. The hard data so far paint a less positive picture, but the balance of evidence suggests that German growth this... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jan.) & German ZEW (Mar.) January’s rise in euro-zone industrial production did not reverse December’s fall and, together with earlier retail sales data, suggests that the message from the business surveys that growth gained... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production, French Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reversed December’s fall and provided a solid start to Q1. But so far, hard data on Germany and elsewhere in the euro-zone suggest that growth will not... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The final estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with rising energy inflation now weighing on households’ real income growth, we expect the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German consumer price inflation to 2.2% reflected food and energy effects. Core inflation remained subdued, implying that rising price pressures in the euro-zone’s largest economy... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The second release confirmed that German GDP was growing at a healthy pace at the end of last year, driven mainly by consumer spending. While business surveys suggest that growth will accelerate... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s renewed rise in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator supported the message from the PMI that growth accelerated at the start of this year. 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a victory for Germany’s SPD reshape Europe? A German government led by the Social Democratic Party could embark on a modest fiscal stimulus at home and show more fiscal leniency to countries such as Greece. But its policies would be unlikely to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Ind. Prod. (Dec.) & German ZEW (Feb.) The second estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP suggested that economic conditions at the end of last year were not quite as positive as previously estimated by Eurostat. And growth looks set to slow this... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
