Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German and Spanish consumer prices data support expectations that euro-zone inflation reversed last month’s decline as energy inflation rose. But underlying price pressures are still... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structural changes take a toll on German retail sector Prime German retail rents are coming under pressure from softer occupier demand and online competition, despite the strong consumer sector. We now expect rents to stagnate over the next couple of... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Nov.) November’s rise in German business sentiment suggests that firms are unfazed by political uncertainty. Even if voters have to return to the polls, we expect the economy to do very well in the coming... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political crisis to have modest economic effects We doubt that the German political crisis will seriously damage business or consumer confidence. And given the similarities between the major parties’ economic policies, the ultimate form of the... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Buoyant Germany brightens euro-zone prospects Data this week confirmed that the euro-zone had a very good Q3, with a 0.6% rise in quarterly GDP pushing the annual growth rate up to 2.5% – the highest since early 2011. This was stronger than the 2... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) Q3’s impressive 0.8% rise in German GDP suggests that growth this year and next will be slightly stronger than even our above consensus forecasts had implied. This may well increase the pressure from... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softer services activity is no cause for alarm The latest euro-zone data have brought signs of a slowdown in activity in the services sector compared to that in manufacturing. But we suspect that the slowdown in services will be modest. After all... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) The drop in German industrial production in September did not reverse August’s sharp rise. The sector performed well in Q3 as a whole and surveys point to an acceleration to come. 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s falls in German and Spanish consumer price inflation support the ECB’s view that its eurozone inflation goal is not yet in sight. While the strength of the economy should boost underlying... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Oct.) October’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment to a new record high underscores the positive outlook for the euro-zone’s largest economy, supporting our above-consensus view on German GDP growth. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that neither the stronger euro nor ECB QE tapering are expected to have significant adverse implications for the German economy. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Aug.) The unexpected softness of French industrial production in August suggests that industry weighed on France’s GDP growth in the third quarter and contrasted with the robust Italian data. Meanwhile... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production August’s surge in German industrial production was in line with the positive message from business surveys and puts the economy on course for a strong Q3. 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s flash inflation data for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone inflation was probably unchanged from August’s 1.5%. And the likely falls in core inflation in both Germany and Spain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should we be more optimistic on German retail? Already upbeat German consumers are likely to benefit from tax cuts ahead. But with prime rental growth seemingly held back by structural factors, total returns are likely to be poor over the 2018-21... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
