Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI capped off a strong year and puts the economy on a very firm footing for the start of 2018. But with the survey’s price indices edging down in December, the ECB... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s dip in German ZEW investor sentiment leaves it still at a high level and suggests that investors do not see political uncertainty as a major threat to the economic outlook. 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is there any value left in German real estate? Even with prime commercial property yields in Germany plumbing new lows, investment activity is still strong. But with tighter monetary policy on the horizon, property yields are at threat from rising... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) The unexpected jump in French industrial production in October was fairly broad-based and shows that the sector made a very healthy start to Q4. Meanwhile, German trade data for the same month were... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Underlying inflationary pressures remain uneven Despite signs that core inflation in Germany picked up in November, euro-zone core inflation remained unchanged at 0.9%. This suggests that despite strong economic growth, underlying inflationary... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s drop in German industrial production largely reflected the timing of holidays – high levels of industrial orders and business confidence point to a renewed acceleration to come. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German and Spanish consumer prices data support expectations that euro-zone inflation reversed last month’s decline as energy inflation rose. But underlying price pressures are still... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structural changes take a toll on German retail sector Prime German retail rents are coming under pressure from softer occupier demand and online competition, despite the strong consumer sector. We now expect rents to stagnate over the next couple of... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Nov.) November’s rise in German business sentiment suggests that firms are unfazed by political uncertainty. Even if voters have to return to the polls, we expect the economy to do very well in the coming... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political crisis to have modest economic effects We doubt that the German political crisis will seriously damage business or consumer confidence. And given the similarities between the major parties’ economic policies, the ultimate form of the... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Buoyant Germany brightens euro-zone prospects Data this week confirmed that the euro-zone had a very good Q3, with a 0.6% rise in quarterly GDP pushing the annual growth rate up to 2.5% – the highest since early 2011. This was stronger than the 2... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) Q3’s impressive 0.8% rise in German GDP suggests that growth this year and next will be slightly stronger than even our above consensus forecasts had implied. This may well increase the pressure from... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softer services activity is no cause for alarm The latest euro-zone data have brought signs of a slowdown in activity in the services sector compared to that in manufacturing. But we suspect that the slowdown in services will be modest. After all... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) The drop in German industrial production in September did not reverse August’s sharp rise. The sector performed well in Q3 as a whole and surveys point to an acceleration to come. 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s falls in German and Spanish consumer price inflation support the ECB’s view that its eurozone inflation goal is not yet in sight. While the strength of the economy should boost underlying... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
