Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Apr.) April’s further decline in the ZEW measure of investor sentiment in Germany suggests that investors are worried that escalating trade tensions and broader geopolitical concerns will take their toll on... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Feb.) February’s sharp fall in industrial production confirms that the German economy made a soft start to the year. But the business surveys suggest that this should prove to be temporary. 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will Germany fare under its new Government? The new German Government plans a fiscal boost equivalent to around 0.4% of GDP per year during its term. Increased spending on child benefits, pensions and refugee integration will support consumer... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s increase in German consumer price inflation reflected a rebound in the volatile food and energy components. The headline rate remains low, at 1.5%, and there is still limited evidence of a... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update High pricing to cool German investment market Commercial property investment in Germany last year fell just shy of 2007’s record. However, the headline number was inflated by rising capital values and a shift towards larger deals. We think the... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.) March’s PMI and Ifo surveys point to a softening of euro-zone growth, which we had expected after such a strong run and which has not caused us to change our upbeat GDP forecasts. But it certainly... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) March’s sharp decline in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment highlights the risks to the economy. While Germany would be hit harder than most by a trade war, for now the outlook is positive. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German core inflation to rise only gradually With clear signs that inflationary pressures are growing in Germany, core inflation looks set to rise. But as this will be gradual and price pressures elsewhere are subdued, it will be of little... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in German inflation reflected falls in the volatile food and energy components. But the still subdued rate of core inflation will encourage the ECB to take a cautious approach to... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Berlin’s construction boom topple rental values? Strong occupier demand and higher rents have helped to lift Berlin’s office development pipeline. On its own, the current level of construction is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in rental growth... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in Ifo business sentiment matches the message from other surveys that German GDP growth is nearing its peak. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bright. 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s small fall in German investor sentiment was unsurprising against a backdrop of falling equity prices and a strong euro. The fact that the majority of investors expect economic conditions to... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4) & CPI (Jan.) Q4’s 0.6% rise in German GDP marked a decent finish to 2017 and growth looks set to accelerate again this year. But with inflation and wage growth still subdued in the euro-zone’s largest and arguably... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy’s economy really booming? With three weeks to go before Italy’s election, the latest surveys suggest that the economy is performing very well. But the official data paint a less rosy picture. On balance, we think that GDP will... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s fall in German industrial production came as no surprise after a surge in November and it is very unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend. We still see German GDP rising by about 2.7... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German current account to remain under scrutiny Recent accusations that Germany has “cooked the books” to downplay its current account surplus are wide of the mark. But the surplus is clearly very large and seems unlikely to narrow in the next... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
