Europe Economics Update German election is Merkel’s to lose as campaigning kicks off With Angela Merkel’s party far ahead in the polls and pledging to pay off debt and cut taxes rather than increase investment, it looks set to be more of the same in Germany after September’s election... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2) The German economy put in a strong performance in the first half of the year. While growth in Q2 was slightly slower than expected, meaning that euro-zone GDP growth might be revised down, surveys... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ten years on, is the euro-zone out of the woods? Ten years ago this week marked the start of the global financial crisis and a challenging time for the euro-zone economy. In many respects, the euro-zone finally appears to be out of the woods. Growth... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Trade (Jun.) Although German and French exporters struggled in June, the outlook for trade in both countries remains fairly bright amid strong growth in global demand and, despite its recent appreciation, the... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) Despite the decline in German industrial production in June, the sector performed well in Q2 as a whole. So we still think that the German economy gathered pace in the second quarter. And surveys... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s unchanged reading for HICP inflation in Germany suggests that euro-zone inflation probably remained at 1.3% in July. German core inflation is set to creep higher over the rest of the year, but... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Logicor sale distorts strength of Q2 European investment The 15% annual rise in European (ex. UK) Q2 investment was wholly dependent on the logistics sector. Indeed, activity in the office and retail sectors fell. But with investors in a buoyant mood, 2017... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo & French INSEE Business Confidence (Jul.) July’s increase in German Ifo business sentiment to a new record high suggests that neither the euro’s rise nor hints of QE tapering have taken the steam out of the economic upturn so far. 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s dip in German investor sentiment presumably reflects the recent tightening of financial market conditions in response to the ECB’s talk of policy normalisation. But we do not take this as a... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly CDU manifesto does little to alter German outlook Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union unveiled its manifesto this week, including plans income tax cuts and increased child benefits. But the proposed giveaways are small and the party, which... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain show that output rose sharply across the board. This suggests that overall economic growth in the euro-zone accelerated further in Q2... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in core inflation confined to Germany While euro-zone headline CPI inflation fell to 1.3% in June, the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose from 0.9% to 1.1%. This left it above the 0.8% average recorded... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s rise in German HICP inflation and a sharper fall in the Spanish rate suggest that euro-zone inflation probably edged down from May’s 1.4%. German core inflation is now rising, but underlying... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s German Ifo survey suggests that GDP growth will accelerate sharply in the months ahead. While growth is unlikely to match the pace implied by this survey, we see the German economy... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little scope for German spending boost from lower savings Structural factors have pushed the German household saving rate higher in recent years. So we doubt that a fall in the saving rate will see consumer spending growth gain much pace in the months ahead. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
