Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) Manufacturing sales rebounded by an encouraging 1.5% m/m in value terms in November and 1.2% m/m in volume terms, led by gains in primary metals, petroleum goods and chemicals. Based on the already... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in wait-and-see mode Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly what policies the incoming Trump administration will pursue south of the border, we have every sympathy with the Bank of Canada’s decision to... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar being buffeted by opposing forces With commodity prices and interest rate differentials pulling the Canadian dollar in different directions again this year, our baseline scenario is that it will remain broadly unchanged, increasing... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to stand pat until Trump’s plans become more clear The unexpected decline in monthly GDP in October, together with the moderation in the new measures of core CPI inflation, might have prompted the Bank of Canada to reconsider cutting interest rates at... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth misfiring again Even allowing for the rebound in real exports in November, the 0.3% m/m decline in monthly GDP in October means that fourth-quarter GDP growth was probably 1.0% annualised or less, putting it well... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The massive 54,000 increase in employment in December continued the barely believable run of job gains over the past few months. The economy added 108,000 jobs in the fourth quarter, the most since... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - GDP by Industry (Oct.) The worrisome 0.3% m/m decline in October GDP was much weaker than expected, suggesting that the economy can’t cope with lower commodity prices, despite the lower Canadian dollar. Unfortunately, with... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack increasing Nowhere is the lingering damage to the economy caused by the commodity price slump more evident than in the labour market. Unemployment is still rising sharply in the worst-affected regions, while... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) The further softening in core inflation in November to 1.3%, from 1.4%, suggests that there is more downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s inflation rate outlook, which is consistent with our view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2017 The underlying momentum in the economy remains sluggish and circumstances aren’t likely to improve next year, mainly because of a worsening downturn in housing investment. We expect GDP growth to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Underlying momentum in economy still sluggish The 3.5% annualised rebound in third-quarter GDP, after the 1.3% contraction in the second quarter caused by wildfire-related disruptions to oil production, is encouraging, but the underlying momentum... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks While it continues to warn about growing housing imbalances and risky mortgage lending, the Bank of Canada still believes there is only a low probability of a major housing correction happening... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The large drop in manufacturing sales volumes and the slip in inventories in October indicate that economic growth slowed sharply at the start of the fourth quarter. Accordingly, the risks around the... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The annual house price inflation rate edged up to 11.9% in November, from 11.8%, driven by a further acceleration in Toronto’s red-hot housing market. While that trend might continue in the near term... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Service sector growth to slow next year Despite the fallout from the slump in oil-related business investment, the service sector enjoyed relatively strong growth over the past two years, mainly because of an acceleration in housing... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada taking a wait and see approach After seriously considering an interest rate cut back in October, the Bank of Canada gave no strong indication in today’s policy statement that it was considering a rate cut in the near term. There... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
