Canada Chart Pack Below target inflation leaves little room for error The recent slowdown in all three new core inflation measures suggest that the excess slack in the economy is building. The core CPI-common measure, which tracks the output gap most closely is of... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tweaking US trade deficits no concern to Canada The potential changes to US trade balance statistics being considered by the US administration has raised eyebrows in Canada. But no matter how Trump’s administration wants to tweak the data, the US... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The headline inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January, up from 1.5%, largely because of higher gasoline inflation. While some of those gains will be reversed in February, the Bank of Canada will be much... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank won’t move on interest rates for a while longer We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy interest rate at 0.50% next week. Although core inflation and wage growth have slowed, activity and business confidence data have been more positive... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Move-up buyers inflating housing bubble Toronto’s growing housing bubble is being blamed on desperate first-time buyers chasing a dwindling inventory of homes for sale, but that’s a red herring. The truth is that it’s mainly being driven by... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The manufacturing sector ended last year in spectacular fashion, with sales volumes rising strongly for a second consecutive month in December. This strength is partly due to a rebound in the... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The annual rate of national house price inflation rose to a ten year high of 13.0% in January, up from 12.3%, in large part due to the speculative housing boom in Toronto. That boom will continue to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing imbalances worsening While the housing investment boom helped support the economy through the oil shock last year, the further deterioration in housing affordability will likely cost the economy in the longer run. The... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The impressive run of headline employment gains continued this year, with 48,300 jobs added in January, which is further evidence of a meaningful economic recovery in the second half of last year from... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December’s trade report confirmed that, even with the benefit of a weaker Canadian dollar, export volumes barely grew last year, which is further evidence of the structural competitiveness challenges... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty Incoming data indicate that the economy has emerged from the oil price shock, with encouraging signs in business confidence pointing to faster economic growth over the next six months. As things stand... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m increase in November GDP was broad-based, with manufacturing, mining, construction, retail and finance all recording solid gains. The only negatives were a weather-related 3.0% m/m... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA on the brink Canada has a strong hand to play in the upcoming negotiations over the NAFTA agreement. With Canadian-US trade broadly balanced and the US reliant on Canadian energy exports, we suspect that the Trump... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada will have strong hand in NAFTA negotiations US President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech, in which he pledged to always put America first, was potentially bad news for Canada. Trump has indicated that he wants to begin an almost immediate... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada focused on US rather than domestic risks Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz surprised the markets last week with his admission that an interest rate cut was still “on the table” if one of the Bank’s downside risks became reality. The... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) Consumer prices increased by 0.3% m/m seasonally adjusted in December, which was enough to push the headline CPI inflation rate back up to 1.5%, from 1.2%, but the big story is still the weakness of... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
