Global Economics Chart Pack Year ending on a positive note After accelerating a little in Q3, business surveys suggest that the world economy has continued growing at a fairly rapid pace in the final months of 2016. Labour market data for the US have been... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The decline in export volumes in October, following the sharp fall in the month before, suggest that export growth this quarter might turn out a lot weaker than even we had assumed. Accordingly, the... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly The other shoe just dropped The rebound in third-quarter GDP mainly reflects volatility in energy production rather than any fundamental improvement in the economy. Excluding energy, GDP has been growing at less than 1%... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The unexpected 10,700 increase in employment in November was driven entirely by gains in part-time work, while the decline in full-time jobs provided futher evidence that the economy is still... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate cut until early next year The rebound in third-quarter GDP likely means that the Bank of Canada will leave its economic projections and policy interest rate unchanged next Wednesday. But policymakers will still have doubts... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2016) Although we won’t know the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing until (probably) January, whichever way it goes, the Government may still be able to trigger Article 50 by March 31st. That said... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exporters still stuck in low growth gear The continuing sluggish performance by export-orientated manufacturers this year is another reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates soon. In contrast to market... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate profits still point to sluggish economy The latest corporate profit figures show that, despite the energy-related rebound in the third-quarter, the economy isn’t out of the woods yet. While higher oil prices in the short term will help the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in September is encouraging but, given the already reported 1.5% m/m slump in wholesales sales volumes that month, the economy still ended the third quarter... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut Although the Canadian dollar has weakened further lately, financial conditions overall appear to be tightening now because of rising market interest rates and new stricter mortgage rules. Given the... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The continued softness in core consumer prices in October suggests that the downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate projection is growing, which is consistent with our view that an... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing sales in September was overshadowed by the disappointing drop in sales volumes, hinting that the economy ended the third quarter on a weak... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The national house price growth rate edged up to 11.8% in October, from 11.7%, driven entirely by Toronto’s hot housing market. While we expect that trend to continue in the very near term, stricter... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win could still be bad for Canada The rebound in financial markets following Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech is a positive sign for Canada’s economy. But his personal volatility and still potentially harsh views on trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
