Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut The Bank of Canada issued a relatively dovish statement today, warning that “risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July”. 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Does it make sense to raise the inflation target? The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting this Wednesday. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in its... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (July) The decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $2.5bn in July, from $4.0bn, is encouraging news for third-quarter GDP growth, although the improvement appears to be partly due to a seasonal... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will be on hold for some time The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th September. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2016) The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% decline anticipated by the Bank of Canada in its July Monetary Policy Report. But Statistics Canada estimates that decline was... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Slump in exports another devastating blow The big news in the last month has been a sharp move up in exchange stocks of copper and a renewed slump in tin inventories. However, the bigger picture is that exchange stocks of metals have not... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2 Our calculations suggest that monthly GDP rebounded by 0.5% m/m in June which, if GDP in the first two months of the quarter was unrevised, would translate into a 1.5% annualised decline in the second... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Have home sales peaked? The surge in the annual rate of house price inflation to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflected a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The recent... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) A drop back in gasoline prices was enough to push the annual CPI inflation rate back down to 1.3% in July, from 1.5%. The core inflation rate was unchanged at 2.1% last month, however, as the Canadian... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) At first glance, the 0.5% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes looks encouraging, but downward revisions to sales in the first two months of the quarter mean that the decline in second-quarter... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought? Right now it is hard to find anything positive to say about Canada’s economy. Around the start of this year things seemed to be going in the right direction; with non-energy exports on a tear and the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul. 16) The acceleration in national house price growth to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflects a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The most recent... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Export growth muted even without a trade war The economy’s reliance on trade with the US means that the current US presidential election campaign could be pivotal for Canada’s export outlook. The big question is whether a President Trump would... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble The B.C. government’s announcement last week that it intends to impose a 15% tax on home purchases by foreign investors is unlikely to topple Vancouver’s housing bubble. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) Monthly GDP fell by a bigger-than-feared 0.6% m/m in May, as the Alberta wildfires triggered a massive slump in oil sands production. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
