Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Although export volumes grew by 2.3% m/m in March, that followed a big decline the month before, with exports increasing only trivially in the first quarter as a whole. This poor export performance... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home Capital Group won’t trigger housing bust The financial difficulties at alternative mortgage lender Home Capital Group (HCG) don’t necessarily mark the end of the housing boom, since it is too small to matter. But with signs that the housing... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Softwood lumber dispute isn’t start of potential trade war The decision by the US Commerce Department to impose preliminary import duties of close to 20% on Canadian softwood lumber isn’t a big surprise to domestic producers, nor will it seriously threaten... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) Despite further gains in housing-related activity, monthly GDP was unchanged in February, dragged down by weakness in export-orientated manufacturing. This demonstrates that, despite the strength in... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household sector still boosting economy The economy likely began this year strongly, with real GDP expanding at an annualised quarterly growth rate of 4.5%. The strength in monthly housing and consumption indicators, however, show that the... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly IMF naïve on Canada outlook The International Monetary Fund’s latest assessment of Canadian growth prospects is unfortunately naïve. Although the economy expanded strongly at the start of this year, that was partly due to the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Falling gasoline price inflation led to a drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.6% in March, from 2.0%, and core inflation dipped further below the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t raise interest rates to cool housing speculation The Bank of Canada confessed this week that speculation is partly responsible for the recent upswing in house prices, but doesn’t believe that higher interest rates are a solution to the problem. The... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) Although manufacturing sales values edged lower in February, the further gain in volumes and inventories suggest that production is gearing up for stronger export sales. This is a good sign that the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no mood to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to stay neutral on the outlook for rates is understandable given how uneven recent economic growth has been. Until... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) Despite a further acceleration in Toronto, the national rate of annual house price inflation eased to 13.0% in March, down from 13.4%, reflecting the continued slowdown in Vancouver and falling house... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth looking very uneven The uneven incoming data reinforce our view that the economy hasn’t turned the corner. Exports continue to misfire, which isn’t encouraging for hopes of a recovery in business investment. Meanwhile... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The further gains in employment and hours worked in March are positive signs for growth in labour income. That supports our view that household spending contributed strongly to first-quarter GDP... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to remain cautious about growth outlook We expect the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates at 0.50% next week and to remain neutral on the direction of interest rates in the near future. Despite economic slack and muted core inflation... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) The 2.5% m/m drop in export volumes in February was widespread and suggests that the economy is still struggling with competitiveness challenges. This just goes to show that the Bank of Canada is... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence slips, but still relatively positive The latest Business Outlook Survey shows that, despite concerns about a potential slowdown in housing, businesses still expect faster economic growth this year. Nevertheless, pressures on production... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
