Canada Chart Pack Housing market poised for correction Toronto’s housing real estate boom is turning to bust. After reaching a record high last quarter, seasonally adjusted home sales have plummeted by 30% so far this quarter, while new listings activity... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market on the brink The housing market appears on the verge of a downturn and will negatively impact economic growth from the second quarter onwards. Although Vancouver home sales have rebounded in recent past months, we... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The impressive 54,500 increase in employment in May, which included a big increase in full-time jobs, will no doubt prompt louder calls for the Bank of Canada to hurry up and raise interest rates. But... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Nothing inspiring about recent GDP growth The recent flurry of strong economic growth may look impressive but, looking beneath the surface, there’s still a lot to worry about. While the extraordinary housing investment boom has set new... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The moderate 0.8% m/m increase in export volumes in April, following the stronger gain in the month before, provides further evidence that exporters are finally tapping into the recent pick-up in... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2017) The strong 3.7% annualised growth in the first quarter was a good start to the year, but with exports still struggling and more recent data pointing to a potential downturn in housing, the pace of GDP... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rebound Given the recent ominous signs of a downturn in Toronto, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will be able to do much to prevent a correction in the housing market. The Bank of Canada only has limited... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the outlook for rates shows that, despite strong economic growth and employment gains... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment still weak The economy has grown strongly over the past few quarters and business confidence has risen. On closer examination, however, business investment has fallen to historically low levels, partly because... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Although the headline inflation rate remained at 1.6% in April, the decline in core inflation provides further evidence of disinflationary pressures in the economy. Spare capacity and very low wage... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) Although manufacturing sales values rose by a strong 1.0% m/m in March, this largely reflected higher prices rather than strong sales volumes. Nevertheless, the stronger gains in unfilled orders and... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to sound more cautious on economic outlook While the Bank of Canada will likely hold interest rates at 0.50% next week, the balance of risks around its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook are beginning to tilt to the downside, mainly... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar unlikely to sink much lower The recent drop in the Canadian dollar to US$0.73, from US$0.75, presumably reflects new fears of a global oil supply glut, which have been weighing on crude oil prices. Although this downward... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) Despite a record high in Toronto, the national rate of annual house price inflation edged down to 13.4% in April, from 13.5%, reflecting the rapid slowdown in Vancouver and falling house prices in... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing boom turning to bust Average home sale price data contain far more timely market information about potential turns in the housing cycle than the aggregate house price indices that are more closely watched. That said, all... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The meagre 3,200 increase in employment in April, which included a big decline in full-time jobs, was a disappointment and will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s view that policy needs to remain highly... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
