Canada Economics Weekly Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate outlook Financial markets appear to be ignoring the Bank of Canada’s latest warnings about the uncertain economic outlook and are pricing in an interest rate hike before the end of this year. In contrast, we... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) It’s tempting to conclude from the very strong 0.6% m/m gain in January GDP that the economy has turned the corner and that the Bank of Canada’s dovish take on the economy is out of tune with reality... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly First-quarter GDP growth blitz unlikely to be sustained The recent run of positive economic data suggest that growth in first-quarter GDP could turn out to be as high as 3.0% annualised, stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.5%. The underlying... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The small decline in the headline inflation rate to 2.0% in February, from 2.1%, was softer than expected, particularly considering higher gasoline price inflation. The bigger story though continues... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal budget avoids policy change on uncertain outlook The 2017 Federal budget delivered today, which was largely a wait-and-see budget, is understandable given the highly uncertain outlook on US trade and fiscal policy. Furthermore, the government is... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slow growth in labour earnings likely to persist Recent headline employment gains, mainly in full-time work, have been impressive. It turns out that most of the job creation over the past year have been in industries where hours worked are below... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The further 0.7% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes in January, partly driven by higher activity in the petroleum industry, provides further evidence that the economy maintained its momentum... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The annual rate of national house price inflation rose to a ten-year high of 13.4% in February, up from 13.0%, largely reflecting the continued acceleration in Toronto. The housing market conditions... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Residential investment still boosting economy Residential housing investment rebounded in the final quarter of last year and looks set to grow at an even faster pace this quarter, thanks to a surge in housing construction. While that will provide... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) While employment rose by a moderate 15,300 in February, the bigger story was the massive 105,100 jump in full-time work, extending the run of better quality jobs lately. That adds to the evidence the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The rebound in merchandise export volumes in January, led by non-energy trade, is encouraging and broadly consistent with the recent pick-up in external business activity indicators. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth firming, but downside risks abound The recent upturn in production activity and business confidence are encouraging signs for near-term growth prospects. There are still some big question marks, however. While first-quarter real GDP... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2016) More moderate GDP growth in the fourth quarter completed what proved to be a disappointing year of only 1.4% growth. Policymakers had hoped for a more spirited and sustainable export-led recovery... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still taking wait and see approach Although core inflation is dangerously low and wage growth anaemic, the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy interest rate at 0.50% can be justified on the recent improvement in the activity... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
