Bank of Canada Watch Bank will remain on the sidelines this year The Bank of Canada is unlikely to announce any major changes to either its economic projections or policy stance next Wednesday. The apparent rebound in third-quarter GDP and the surge in employment... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep. 16) The current madness in Toronto’s housing market will predictably be blamed on foreigners, but the near-record 16.4% increase in house prices over the past 12 months is mainly due to low interest rates... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business outlook improves, but still relatively weak The Bank of Canada’s Autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that the drag from the collapse in crude oil prices last year is finally fading. However, there are still few signs that the recovery will be... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the latest mortgage rule changes derail housing? The housing market dominated the headlines again last week, with news of another sharp decline in Vancouver home sales in September accompanied by the announcement of a package of new measures on... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep. 16) The massive 67,000 increase in employment in September will reassure the Bank of Canada that the economy is still enjoying a decent rebound following the wildfire disruption in the second quarter... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line During the first US presidential debate last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump predictably returned to one of the central themes of his campaign; that the US is being cheated by global trade rules... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul. 16) The bigger than expected 0.5% m/m gain in July GDP means that the Bank of Canada’s forecast of a 3.5% annualised increase for the third quarter as a whole now looks well within reach. However, it is... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Falling inflation adds to Bank of Canada’s concerns The fall in core inflation to a two-year low of 1.8% in August adds to the growing list of concerns for the Bank of Canada. The Canadian dollar’s sharp decline in 2014 and 2015 had kept core inflation... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada quiet on monetary policy options In a strange speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz acknowledged that the so-called neutral real interest rate was now much lower than before the financial crisis. But in his prepared... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) The decline in the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of core CPI inflation to a two-year low of 1.8% in August, from 2.1%, shows that the upward pressure on prices from last year’s slump in the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt continues to rise The focus remained on the nation’s housing boom last week, with figures released showing that house prices continued to rise rapidly last month, even as home sales fell further in the aftermath of the... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in sales volumes in July shows that manufacturing is moving in the right direction, but the broader pace of growth is still very disappointing given the strong boost that the... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug. 16) The Teranet house price index shows the national growth rate climbed to a six-year high of 11.4% y/y in August, as prices continued to increase in Vancouver even after the introduction of the new... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble still a tale of two cities The reported 23% y/y decline in Vancouver home sales in August unsurprisingly prompted claims in the media last week that the new foreign buyer tax, which took effect at the start of last month, had a... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.16) The 26,000 rebound in employment in August looks good at first glance but, following the 31,200 decline in July, that still means employment is down slightly over the past three months as a whole. The... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
