Canada Economics Update Trump victory creates more business uncertainty The reaction in financial markets to Donald Trump’s surprising US election victory has been limited so far, thanks in large part to the surprisingly conciliatory tone of his acceptance speech this... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Infrastructure bank will only create more bureaucracy The Liberal government’s plan to create a national infrastructure bank is a recipe for greater bureaucracy rather than a remedy for improving longer-term economic prospects. Existing public agencies... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The unexpected 43,900 increase in employment in October was driven entirely by gains in part-time work, which is more evidence that the economy is struggling to generate quality high-paying jobs. Even... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal fiscal update doesn't alter dismal growth outlook Finance Minister Bill Morneau focused entirely on longer-term infrastructure spending in today’s fiscal update, offering no new short-term stimulus measures to bolster the struggling economy. If, as... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m gain in August GDP, partly driven by the further recovery in oil extraction, all but confirms that the economy grew by close to 3.5% annualised in the third quarter following the wildfire... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Canada be more transparent? The mixed messages coming from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last week, which caused a stir in financial markets and the media, makes us wonder if, like most other major central banks, the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade The potential collapse of Canada’s Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union would not be a big economic blow, since estimates suggested that even the long-term boost to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Job gains mostly part-time positions for older workers The labour market appears to have come storming back in September, with employment increasing by almost 70,000 in a single month. Under the surface, however, labour market conditions remain weak. The... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth The latest setbacks in ratifying an EU-Canada trade deal have larger direct economic implications for Canada than for the EU. But the political deadlock bodes ill for future EU trade agreements which... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal Notwithstanding one or two more positive signs, world trade remains in the doldrums. And the fact that the EU-Canada trade agreement may be scuppered by a regional Belgian government does not bode... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing Although the Bank of Canada gave no indication in last week’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, Governor Stephen Poloz freely admitted in his press conference that an... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) The recent softness in core CPI inflation could become a major concern for the Bank of Canada. The Bank was forced to cut its projection for inflation earlier this week in its new Monetary Policy... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains on the side lines The Bank of Canada gave no indication in today’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, even though it lowered its projections for GDP growth and now doesn’t expect the economy... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The better than expected 0.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales in August, which translated into an even bigger 1.2% m/m gain in volumes terms, will provide even more reassurance to the Bank of... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recent job gains appear to be very low quality The massive 67,200 increase in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of employment in September would seem to suggest that labour market conditions are improving. But under the surface there is a... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
