Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early signs point to deepening contraction in Q3 Activity data for July and August suggest that the economic situation in Nigeria deteriorated going into the third quarter. The economy will probably continue to contract over the duration of 2016. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy losing steam in Q3 Output figures for July suggest that South Africa’s economy weakened a bit at the beginning of Q3. This supports our view that strong growth in Q2 was a brief rebound, not the beginning of a lasting... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account position improved by more than we’d expected in Q2, but the shortfall will still probably remain relatively wide over the coming year. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Eurobond provides boost to confidence in fragile economy The successful launch of Ghana’s fifth Eurobond is a sign of the markets’ growing confidence in the country. While the economy remains fragile, we expect that the worst is now behind us. 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jul.) South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in July, dragged down by yet another fall in PGM output. However, the profitability of the PGM industry has continued to improve owing to higher... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3 The first Q3 South African output data support our view that the rapid growth reported in Q2 is unlikely to be sustained. The economy may post positive growth in 2016 as a whole, but only marginally. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further sharp rise in Egyptian inflation, to 15.5% y/y in August, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting later this month. With further subsidy cuts on the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) Strong q/q growth in Q2 mostly reflects a bounce back following the disaster of Q1. We expect that growth will be sluggish in the second half of the year. 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip We think the Egyptian pound could fall by as much as 25% against the US dollar, to 12.0/US$, by end-2017 if the authorities shift to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its prospective IMF deal. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The sharp decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI looks worrying. But we wouldn’t panic; the survey has become a less reliable leading indicator recently. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession The contraction of Nigerian GDP in Q2 was driven by a sharp fall in oil output, but the data shows that other sectors of the economy are also suffering. Economy policy has made a bad situation worse. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
