Africa Economics Update Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis Kenya’s banking sector is stronger and more resilient than recent headlines might imply. The failure of a few small banks poses little risk to the sector as a whole. Indeed, as we explain in this... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp acceleration of Nigerian inflation is yet another sign that the country’s controversial currency and price control policies have failed. We expect that inflation will continue rising... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the panic, what next for EMs? The sense of crisis that had been building in emerging markets has started to ease over the past month or so. So what next? In this Update we identify three risks – China, commodities and the threat... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Manufacturing sector springs to life, for now Today’s strong output figure is a rare sign of life from South Africa’s moribund manufacturing sector. Even so, we expect that the sector will struggle to sustain much growth this year. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Zuma saga is far from over Today’s vote to impeach President Jacob Zuma will almost certainly fail. But efforts to oust the president will continue, potentially distracting political attention from South Africa’s dire economic... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut The Bank of Uganda is unlikely to follow today’s surprise rate cut with much more monetary easing this year. A variety of factors will force the Bank to keep policy tight. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in March to its highest level in a year adds to evidence that economic conditions across the emerging world are improving. The pick-up in the survey in China is... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unexpected improvement in South Africa’s PMI is very welcome news for the struggling economy. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator with a mixed record of predicting real... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.) South Africa’s surprisingly narrow February trade deficit is a rare piece of positive news about the country’s economy. Elsewhere, inflation eased in Kenya and Zambia. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand finally rebounds The South African rand appreciated sharply this month, solidifying the gains it has made since the turn of the year. Other African financial markets also preformed relatively well. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Brazil Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth dipped at the start of this year, but this appears to have been driven by deepening problems in Brazil and a recent soft patch in India. China’s... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria reverses course? The biggest policy change over the past month came from Nigeria, where the Central Bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate from 11.00% to 12.00%. This move partially reversed the Bank’s rate cut... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s central bank makes long-awaited devaluation The Egyptian central bank’s decision to devalue the pound this month ended months of growing speculation that a move in the currency was on the cards. In the near term, this will bring some pain. The... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation rises in commodity consumers but stays below target Seasonal factors pushed up food inflation in Asia last month, but the underlying picture is that inflation remains below target in commodity-consuming EMs in Asia as well as in Central Europe. In... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
