Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s surprisingly positive PMI reading provides another sign that South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q2. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Easing cycles have further to run in several frontier markets The past month has brought aggressive monetary easing in a handful of frontier markets, and we think others will follow suit over the rest of this year. Cuts in policy interest rates this month in... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets The key decision affecting African markets this month was Nigeria’s long-awaited currency reforms, which sent the naira tumbling. The effect of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was relatively limited... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Post-Brexit sell-off unlikely to push up inflation in the EM world The sell-off in the majority of EM currencies in the wake of the Brexit vote is unlikely to have a significant impact on inflation in most of the emerging world. That said, it is likely to cause... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Post-Brexit EM market moves likely to be driven by Fed & China EM financial markets are often hit hard during bouts of investor risk aversion, but most have come through the past few days in reasonable shape. Looking ahead, EMs are more likely to face acute sell... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery continues Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up for the third consecutive month in April, helped by an improvement in activity in Latin America and Emerging Europe. 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be The surprisingly bad fall in South African GDP in Q1 has raised fears that the economy could enter recession in Q2. We’ll know more in the next few weeks as May’s activity figures are published, but... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit, EMs and some common questions There are already some signs that following the initial shock of the Brexit vote, financial markets in EMs are starting to stabilise. In this Update, we outline four common questions that we have been... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks continue to build in China A continued build-up of private sector debt in China is increasing financial risks. We don’t expect the sharp rise in credit to cause imminent problems, but we are concerned about sustainability in... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa sinking? We expect that African economic growth this year will fall far below even 2015’s very poor result. The weakness will be concentrated in the region’s largest economies, most of which are still... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth starting to turn a corner EM growth has shown some signs of life in recent months. GDP data for Q1 showed a rise in aggregate growth for the first time since 2013 and our GDP Tracker suggests that the improvement continued in... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading for May, of 6.1% y/y, will provide welcome relief for the Reserve Bank. Barring a surprising rise in June’s inflation figure, we think the MPC... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2016) Consumer spending in the emerging world finally looks to have turned a corner, thanks mainly to the bottoming-out of consumer recessions in Russia and Brazil. Spending in Central and Eastern Europe... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Economic giants now contracting Both the Nigerian and South African economies contracted in Q1, and the latest activity figures suggest that things remained very grim going into Q2. In Nigeria, disruptions to oil output in Q2 have... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May) The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
