Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies Official data released over the past month mostly suggested that African economies improved a touch, but a series of political shocks has hit investor confidence. The most high-profile of these as... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery resumes Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after a brief pause in May, the recovery in EM growth resumed in June. The latest improvement has been driven by a pick-up in activity in Emerging Asia and Latin... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Political risk spook investors Political risk has roiled the markets in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya over the past month. Tensions within South Africa’s cabinet, which pose a risk to the country’s already fragile economy... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets welcome IMF deal Financial markets in Egypt have rallied over the past month after the government reached an agreement with the IMF over a US$12bn financing package. Equities have risen, spreads on dollar-denominated... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation eased from 6.3% y/y in June to a weaker-than-expected 6.0% in July, but we still think that inflation will pick up again later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to hike... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Japan’s role will remain limited This week’s high-profile Japan-Africa summit will not change the fact that Tokyo remains a relatively minor player in Africa. In some areas, however, Japan will continue to play a significant role. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Gradual acceleration, but recovery will be slow After two years of progressively slower growth, most African economies will strengthen in 2017. This recovery will be driven by rising commodity prices, which should ease strains in the balance of... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery After a prolonged downturn, there are early signs that EM industry is finally starting to turn a corner. Our measure of EM industrial production growth picked up to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.2% in May... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales data point to Q2 rebound The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity Zambia’s disputed election has raised the risk of a period of political uncertainty, but with the vote out of the way, we think that it’s now likely that the government will agree to a long-delayed... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Latest data suggests economy dodged recession June’s manufacturing and mining figures support our view that the South African economy expanded by about 1.5% q/q (saar) in Q2, thus avoiding a technical recession. We still expect that the economy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun. 2016) While South Africa’s overall mine production shows tentative signs of recovery, the sector’s fortunes remain bleak for the time being. However, surging prices continued to encourage higher PGM output... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports The slightly faster decline in EM exports recorded in June compared to May was due to price and currency effects that should prove short-lived. The recovery will continue over the coming months. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
