Africa Economic Outlook The worst is yet to come Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa fell to a 16 year-low last year, and we believe that growth will weaken even further 2016. Three key factors will drive this decline. First, a combination of drought... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa Economics Update Nigerian officials unexpectedly abandoned two key economic policies yesterday by tightening monetary policy and re-instating a partial ban on rice imports. The immediate economic effects will be mixed... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets bounce back strongly The last month has seen EM financial markets recover from their poor start to 2016. Our Synthetic EM Exchange Rate Index has rallied to its strongest level since November. Almost all EM currencies... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) Today’s surprisingly high South African inflation figure will probably lead the SARB to accelerate its programme of rate hikes. This will be very painful for an economy that is struggling to avoid... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Partial U-turn further muddles monetary outlook The Central Bank of Nigeria hiking its key policy rate from 11.00% to 12.00% is, in many ways, a positive sign. But this flip-flop on rates will raise yet more questions about the unpredictable and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Solid growth, no economic transformation Hopes that African economies will repeat the economic miracles seen in Asia are, for the most part, misplaced. Rapid population growth will deliver reasonable rates of headline GDP growth, but... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya & Ghana: Tightening cycles both set to reverse Today’s statements from the Ghanaian and Kenyan Central Banks were more dovish than we had anticipated. This supports our view that the Ghanaian authorities will cut rates later this year, and we have... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation, rand weakness force painful hike Today’s interest rate hike in South Africa will be followed with further tightening later this year in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Recent improvement in EM sentiment backed by fundamentals The risk of a systemic EM financial crisis remains low. Our CERI suggests that financial vulnerabilities across the emerging world are much smaller now than at the time of previous crises and have... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Jan.) The drop in retail sales growth is the latest figure that suggests that the South African economy lost momentum in January. We expect that GDP growth will be a below-consensus 0.5%. 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Nigerian inflation rose to 11.6% y/y in February, largely due to the falling parallel market exchange rate. This will deal yet another blow to the controversial FX system. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade fears overdone The latest trade figures have reignited fears about the health of emerging markets. But while EM trade growth has slowed in recent years, we see little reason for alarm. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Jan.) South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided an economic contraction Q4 2015, but the January output figures suggest that GDP may fall this quarter. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why has the oil windfall been felt unevenly across EMs Consumer spending growth has risen far more sharply in Emerging Europe than in Emerging Asia over the past year and a half, even though both regions have received a similar boost from the drop in oil... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) The latest Nigerian GDP figures support our view that growth in Africa’s largest economy will be much weaker than most expect. While Nigeria has been battered by low oil prices, the country’s bungled... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
