Africa Economics Update Ghana: Inflation headed down as economic imbalances unwind The sharp fall in Ghanaian inflation supports our view that the worst is over for Ghana’s economy. Thegradual reduction of economic imbalances will help inflation moderate over the coming months. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Gradual recovery after a painful adjustment Economic growth in Angola is grinding to a halt as the economy adjusts to lower oil prices. Growth will recover in 2017 and 2018, but more gradually than most expect. 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, suggesting that the pick-up in outflows seen in June was just a blip. The big picture is that they have fallen... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt worries are overblown The revelation that Mozambique’s government has failed to disclose the true level of its foreign debts has hit sentiment towards the country, which had been seen as an African outperformer. But while... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC Yesterday’s local elections suggest that South African elections may be becoming more competitive. Foreign investors will probably welcome the fact that reduced support for the ruling ANC has helped... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s economy set for slowdown next year After years of regional outperformance, we expect that Uganda’s economy will slow more sharply than most expect in 2017. Even so, the external vulnerabilities that have built up during the past few... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the IMF: five questions (and answers) Egypt’s financial markets have responded extremely positively to the news that the government is close to securing an IMF deal, although at this stage few details about the negotiations are actually... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (July) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped a bit in July, but it still points to manufacturing output growth of about 5.0%. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Central Bank puts its money where its mouth is Nigeria’s self-proclaimed move to a more “flexible” exchange rate last month was initially a disappointment, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reasserting its grip at N282/US$. Over the last week... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates on hold…for now News that Egypt is on the brink of receiving an IMF deal (and the subsequent easing of pressure on the pound) provided the central bank with a window of opportunity to pause its tightening cycle today... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high Inflation in a number of EM commodity producers has remained stubbornly high over the past few months. Accordingly, consensus expectations for monetary policy in these countries have moved towards our... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira finally breaking free The Central Bank of Nigeria has loosened its grip on the naira in recent days, causing us to review our forecast. Elsewhere, South Africa’s equities and currency have outperformed. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN hikes rates despite threat to economic recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest rate hike is a belated attempt to regain control over the country’s weakening currency. We expect that the bank will tighten by at least another 200bps later this... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities lag behind Most stock markets in the Gulf have edged up over the past month, but their performance looks poor compared with the rises seen elsewhere in the emerging world. Meanwhile, expectations of another... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, cuts still in the cards The Central Bank of Kenya decided to hold its key rate at 10.50% today, but we expect that the bank will cut rates later this year as inflation remains within target and Kenya’s external... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
