Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: fresh devaluation on the way Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the Egyptian pound could be on the cusp of (another) devaluation. The initial rumours were sparked by the central bank governor, Tarek Amer, who suggested... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely The weakness of South Africa’s economy prompted the MPC to hold off hiking interest rates today, but we still think there is room for additional monetary tightening later in the year. For now, we... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes Nigeria’s new exchange rate policy falls far short of the authorities’ bold promises and we think the currency will have to fall further over the coming 12 months or so. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices hitting home Oil prices have been low for some time now, but the past month has brought further evidence that this new reality is starting to hit home in energy-exporting frontier markets. Recently-released data... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (June) Last month’s rise in South African inflation, to 6.3% y/y, took the headline rate further above the Reserve Bank’s target range, and both we and the Bank expect it to edge higher over the rest of this... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account to remain in deficit, rand under pressure A string of positive trade figures released over the past few months has raised hopes that South Africa’s balance of payments position might finally improve. In this Watch, however, we explain why the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh devaluation of the Egyptian pound just a matter of time The Egyptian pound has been held steady since March’s devaluation, but persistent strains in the balance of payments mean that it needs to fall further. Recent shifts towards more orthodox... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rise in inflation has further to go Despite the sharp rise in Nigerian inflation last month, we think it will still be some time before the headline rate peaks. This will force the central bank to tighten monetary policy even in the... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump gradually easing The decline of EM values slowed, in US$ terms, again in May. The volume of EM exports, which is more important from an economic standpoint, actually rose. 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q2 Activity data for May suggest that South Africa’s economy has improved after contracting in Q1. We expect that the economy returned to growth in Q2, narrowly missing a technical recession. 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains The return of production from Canada and Nigeria along with a potential increase in output from Libya over the next few months should put some downward pressure on prices. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (May) Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (June) South Africa’s business confidence index remained weak in June, though it rose from the all-time low in May. Other surveys – and timely activity data – suggest that the economy probably avoided a... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Egypt turn to the IMF? Rumours have circulated again that Egypt is seeking a deal with the IMF and, as we argue in this Watch, an agreement is now looking more likely than at any point in the past five years. A financing... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI weakens in June, but some good news The fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in June suggests that growth probably weakened at the end of Q2. But there was some rare positive news from a handful of EM economies that have been... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
