Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle Today’s decision to hold rates at 7.00% is only a pause in the SARB’s tightening cycle; we still expect at least two rate hikes later this year. The MPC statement supported our very downbeat view of... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak economy will prompt SARB pause Lower-than-expected inflation and retail sales will probably lead the SARB to leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. Output data suggest that South Africa narrowly avoided a fall in GDP in Q1. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil disruptions add to economic woes The sharp fall in Nigeria’s oil production could, if sustained, shave more than 1%-pt off GDP growth this year. Lower oil output will also add to the country’s fiscal and current account problems. 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: FX comments, fuel price hikes offer hints of reform The vice president’s comments regarding a possible change to Nigeria’s currency regime suggest that policy elites may not be as opposed to a devaluation as many believe. Claims that Nigeria’s fuel... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Very weak showing in key sectors Declining output from the manufacturing and mining sectors underscore the weakness of South Africa’s economy. Given today’s grim figures – and the recent jump in unemployment – we expect that the SARB... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.) South Africa’s PGMs production rebounded in March, having fallen sharply in the first two months of the year, suggesting that mining firms have been enticed to raise output in response to higher... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubbles deflating, but risks building in China Credit growth is slowing in most of the economies we have previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. The exception is China, where aggressive stimulus has... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export recovery continues The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed sharply in March. We expect that higher commodity prices and an improvement in China’s economy will see export values return to growth later this year... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Economic shock not over yet GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa slowed to a 16-year low in 2015, but the adjustment to low commodity prices is far from over. We expect even weaker growth in 2016. 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs declined sharply in April to a 10-month low of a little over $10bn. Outflows from China remained relatively low compared to the past year, while... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rising debt adds to economic vulnerabilities Kenya’s high public debt should stabilise as a share of GDP if – as we expect – growth stays strong. But a sharp slowdown or a run on the currency could easily put the debt ratio on an unsustainbale... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy The flow of foreign capital into Nigeria has slowed to a trickle. This will exacerbate the country’s serious balance of payment problems and further depress investment in an economy that is starved of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, financial risks and the Fed With the Fed leaving the door open to another interest rate hike at June’s FOMC meeting, focus is starting to shift once again to financial vulnerabilities in EMs. A handful of countries are likely to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
