Africa Chart Pack Not out of the woods The recovery in global risk appetite and in commodity prices has eased strains in balance of payments across the region. But conditions remain much worse than the they were before the crisis flared up... 23rd June 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira unity, China debt talks, South Africa’s budget Nigeria’s government is rumoured to seek the merger of the country’s main exchange rates, but a unified and market-determined naira still seems far away. A speech by Chinese president Xi Jinping shed... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s finances, debt relief uptake on the rise Nigeria’s revised budget for 2020 is nearing a final hurdle of approval, but the deficit will probably exceed the government's expectations. And despite the recent rise in oil prices and easing... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angolan debt, South African court ruling Angola’s debt problem returned to the fore this week as the government announced that it is seeking debt relief under a G20 initiative and to reprofile oil-related debts, but we think that more will... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Private creditor debt talks, SA budget constraints The past week has brought private sector debt relief a step closer for the region, although we suspect that talks will drag on. Similarly, the road ahead for an ambitious infrastructure spending plan... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Lockdowns lifting Governments across much of Sub-Saharan Africa have moved towards lifting coronavirus containment measures in recent weeks but, with the exception of South Africa, this has much more to do with... 29th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
