Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor While emerging markets suffered large net portfolio investment outflows in March, the very latest data suggest that the pace of outflows eased in the first half of April. Meanwhile, it appears that... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt moratoriums, South Africa’s policy response This week’s G20 deal allowing low-income countries – many in Sub-Saharan Africa – to freeze debt payments on bilateral loans will provide much needed reprieve, most notably in Angola. But broader debt... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt moratorium, IMF SLL small steps in right direction The agreement by the G20 to allow the world’s poorest nations to suspend bilateral debt servicing will help to ease short-term balance of payments strains in much of Africa, most notably Angola, but... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns may not be effective in all EMs Lockdowns have proved successful at limiting the spread of coronavirus in the likes of China, Korea and the Czech Republic, but they are likely to be less effective in poorer countries – notably much... 15th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Coronavirus round-up, defaults nearing The coronavirus continued to ripple through Sub-Saharan Africa this week, with policymakers ramping up containment measures. But there are reasons to think that severe restrictions will be less... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can lockdowns work in Africa? An increasing number of African governments have imposed lockdowns in an effort to fight Covid-19, but we think the risk that such restrictive measures fail to contain the outbreak is bigger in the... 6th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tumbling rand, coronavirus containment, default risks The current risk-off sentiment means that the South African rand’s slide this week will probably continue in the near term. And escalating containment measures will take an economic toll, despite... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: debt restructuring wave to sweep the region The coronavirus and low commodity prices are putting pressure on most African economies’ balance of payments positions and pushing many sovereigns closer to default. Besides Zambia, which is already... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of EM central bank bonds purchases EM central banks have acted swiftly in response to the coronavirus crisis, including adding bond purchases to their toolkit. These are aimed primarily at reducing credit spreads and stabilising the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Can containment work in Africa? IMF takes the stage African countries tightened their coronavirus containment measures this week, which will add to economic disruptions. But it isn't clear whether these policies will be as effective as they have been... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
