Africa Economics Update African debt risks: five key questions This Update answers five questions we are asked most frequently on sovereign debt risks in Sub-Saharan Africa. While there are lots of factors at play, it seems likely that governments in much of the... 26th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s slump, SOE problems, naira still struggling The activity figures coming out of South Africa continue to make for depressing reading and the economic slump is causing growing problems at SOEs. Eskom remains the main risk for the public finances... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Survey blues in South Africa, Nigeria’s budget woes Figures published in South Africa this week gave an early indication of the scale of economic devastation caused by the country’s lockdown. The risks to our forecast for a 6.5% fall in GDP this year... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update African downturn and recovery paths to diverge Low-profile data suggest that the economic damage caused by lockdowns in some of the poorer economies in Africa will be more moderate than in higher-income countries. But the economic pain could be... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt relief, Nigeria’s exchange rates Debt relief proposals for low-income African economies that would include commercial creditors are taking shape, although our sense is that restructurings are most likely to be relatively modest and... 1st May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt risks growing The risk of further sovereign defaults has risen across the region this month. Rwanda has joined Zambia in seeking to restructure its sovereign debt. And the collapse in oil prices will put more... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Lockdown to ease in SA, fallout from oil price collapse The fiscal package announced by South Africa's government this week will probably ease some of the economic pain from efforts to contain the coronavirus, although much of the damage has already been... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Steep regional recession, default risks growing Sub-Saharan Africa is set for one of its worst downturns in decades this year. The hardest hit economies are likely to be South Africa (due to its stringent lockdown measures), the large oil producers... 24th April 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
