Africa Economics Weekly Vaccines and wars... recoveries and restrictions... The announcement this week of a successful trial of a COVID-19 vaccine is without doubt good news, but the economic gains for Africa may not be as sweeping as many might hope. Meanwhile, Ethiopia... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Clashes in Ethiopia place dark cloud over outlook The escalation of political tensions in Ethiopia into outright military conflict threatens to morph into civil war that would push the economy into a deep recession and raise the risk of a sovereign... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopian tinderbox, soft South African recovery Frictions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray region turned into military confrontation this week, which will inflict damage not only on the population but also on the economy. In... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US election, oil output cuts, COVID-19 restrictions This week’s US election has yet to reach a conclusive result, but some of the potential downside risks facing the Middle East and North Africa appear to have diminished. Meanwhile, OPEC+ seems to... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in October was distorted by a pick-up in supplier delivery times and, if anything, the survey suggests that the recovery continued to lose steam at the... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt and despair in SA & Zambia, election jitters South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Statement outlined harsh austerity measures, but it wouldn’t take much to knock the plans off course and leave debt on an unsustainable trajectory. In Zambia, there... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Political problems piling up Political developments dominating the news in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past month threaten to add to the headwinds facing economic recoveries. Protests in Nigeria that were initially focused on... 29th October 2020 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly COVID in South Africa, Nigeria protests, Zambia hopes The recent rise in newly recorded COVID-19 cases in South Africa appears to reflect higher testing more than anything else. But it’s a reminder that a renewed outbreak of the virus poses a major... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Weak recoveries, default risks still high Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been... 22nd October 2020 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Default and debt relief, stale SA recovery plan Debt relief efforts took different turns for African governments this week. For many, the extension of a debt service suspension deal will come as good news. But a stand-off between Zambia, China and... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s deficit financing options diminishing This week’s 2021 budget presentation by Nigeria’s President Buhari points to challenges in financing the government’s ambitious spending plans, raising the risk that the authorities turn to financial... 9th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s debt roller coaster, budget rumours in Nigeria Zambia’s first steps towards debt restructuring have not got off to a good start, reinforcing our fears that the process will be long and arduous. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s rumoured budget proposals... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
