Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices, virus outbreak batter economies Given the pace at which the coronavirus is disrupting activity both in Africa and globally, most of the backward-looking figures released this month probably tell us very little about the current... 26th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Worsening outbreak, growth downgrades, rate cuts The coronavirus outbreak in Africa took a turn for the worse this week, with the number of cases more than tripling. Policymakers in South Africa and Ghana fired the first shots by cutting interest... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Coronavirus will cut growth across the region It now seems clear that the coronavirus outbreak will cause greater economic damage than we had initially thought – both globally and within Africa. Growth will slow across the region, with South... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices batter Angola, SARB prepares to fight back Six more African countries reported their first confirmed coronavirus infections this week, but the virus’ spread in the region remains slower than elsewhere. Even so, the economic shockwaves caused... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Oil exporters’ currencies set for big falls Risk-off sentiment has already battered the rand, but we think that the Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza will both fall further later this year when policymakers are forced to accept painful... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM external vulnerabilities largest? If the recent tightening of external financing conditions is sustained, it would result in severe balance of payments strains for the usual suspects (Turkey and Argentina) as well as some of the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Coronavirus: Oil prices will deal key economic blow The coronavirus will probably continue to spread in Africa, but the biggest economic hit will come from lower oil prices. Indeed, Angola may suffer a bigger fall in GDP than anywhere outside the worst... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Coronavirus adds to headwinds facing African economies In line with our new, more pessimistic global outlook, we’re in the process of downgrading our 2020 growth forecasts for most African economies. Even if actual infection numbers in the region remain... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) Weak domestic demand in South Africa has narrowed the country’s current account deficit, which should provide some support to the rand and allow the SARB more space to loosen policy. We expect that... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While weak PMIs elsewhere in the EM world were partially due to spill over effects from the coronavirus, the sharp fall in the South African survey largely reflects domestic weaknesses. We suspect... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
