Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget brawl, no growth momentum in Nigeria South Africa’s budget speech this week struck a more realistic tone about the country’s dire economic situation, but we still think that there are a number of optimistic assumptions underpinning the... 28th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Warning lights across the region Recent news added to our general sense of pessimism about most African economies in 2020. While the region has yet to report any cases of the new coronavirus, falling commodity prices are already... 27th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Public sector cuts likely won’t prevent downgrade The government is trying to balance weak revenue with increased interest and SOE spending by cutting wages and programme costs, which will prove politically difficult. The weakening fiscal position... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa prepares for budget, Nigeria’s PIB stumbles on South Africa’s 2020 budget speech – taking place next week – will lay out the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. Given the grim economic backdrop and the need to provide aid to Eskom, tax hikes... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jan. 2020) The further rise in Nigerian inflation in January, to 12.1% y/y, suggests that border closures have continued to drive up food prices. This will limit the central bank’s scope to lower interest rates... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ramaphosa promises reform, Ethiopia delays vote, BoG to hold President Cyril Ramaphosa’s latest state of the nation address came against a grim backdrop of figures suggesting that the economy re-entered recession in Q4. The president’s plans to open up the... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The modest rise in Egyptian inflation in January leaves it below the mid-point of the central bank’s target range and, after pausing for breath at the last MPC meeting, we think that policymakers will... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus disruptions start to hit Africa, all eyes on SONA While Africa has – so far – not reported any cases of the new coronavirus, evidence is building that shutdowns in China are causing economic disruptions for the region. Kenya’s locust infestation will... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the coronavirus on EMs The coronavirus outbreak will result in much weaker growth in China in Q1 and has hit tourism sectors elsewhere. If factory closures in China are prolonged, the epidemic could start to cause more... 4th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
