Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada drops pledge to hike further The Bank of Canada has finally pulled its head out of the sand and acknowledged that the deteriorating economy no longer justifies higher interest rates in the near term. Although the Bank still... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to a 10-year high in December confirms that net trade was a drag on GDP growth in fourth quarter, and the weakening global backdrop suggests that drag will intensify... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy’s strong end to 2018 already fading Saudi Arabia’s economy appears to have expanded by around 4.5% y/y in Q4 of last year, but it is now almost certainly slowing. Our forecast for GDP growth of 1.3% this year lies towards the bottom of... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) Although December’s trade data were worse than expected, we doubt this will result in a downward revision to the fourth-quarter GDP data. But with global business surveys deteriorating in recent... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The surge in home purchase demand seen in January was reversed in February, even as mortgage interest rates edged back to their lowest level in a year. That dynamic is likely to continue over the next... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Boost to oil from lower supply unlikely to last The price of oil continued to climb in February as the US and China inched towards a trade deal, and Saudi Arabia announced that it would cut output further. However, we still think that prices will... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has development activity reached a trough? The stabilisation in development activity at the end of last year is encouraging but is not likely to mark the start of an upward trend. Indeed, with borrowing costs set to rise, and rental and... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The reasonably small rise in Russian inflation, from 5.0% y/y in January to 5.2% y/y in February, is likely to offer further reassurance to the central bank that a recent VAT hike hasn’t fed into a... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, easing cycle to start in June The hawkish tone of the Turkish central bank’s recent communications meant that a rate cut was never likely at today’s meeting. But with inflation set to fall further in the coming months and the... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview: A holding operation The Chancellor will probably use his Spring Statement on Wednesday 13th March to show that at a time of extreme political instability and economic uncertainty the public finances are in good health... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in February even if, as we suspect, it rose a touch due to higher food inflation. As such, the RBI will almost certainly cut policy rates again, perhaps... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Risk appetite likely to fade Increasing signs of a US-China trade deal prompted a return of risk appetite and led to the prices of many industrial metals hitting multi-month highs and a sell-off in gold and silver. However, even... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s unrealistic pledges to import US commodities There has been a surprisingly muted reaction in commodity markets to the latest reports that China and the US are close to a trade deal. We think this reflects a combination of the fact that much of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s core inflation concerns overdone The Mexican central bank’s recently released Q1 Inflation Report reiterated concerns about sticky core inflation. But we think these worries are overdone, and core inflation should fall back in the... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
