Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The fall in the unemployment rate to an eight-year low in February will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence in its forecast that the labour market will continue to tighten. By... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil price boost for the Gulf to prove fleeting The recovery in oil prices since the start of this year is only likely to provide brief respite for the Gulf economies. Brent crude briefly touched $68pb this month, marking a 30% rise from the trough... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will monetary policy rescue E-Z peripheral bonds? We expect bonds in the euro-zone’s “periphery”, particularly in Italy, to come under renewed pressure in the rest of 2019 as growth remains weak and political risks creep up. However, we think that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth slows further in early 2019 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy softened in the second half of 2018 and weakened further in the first two months of this year. The slowdown has been mild so far, with growth... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily 10yr UST yield likely to fall further, as the Fed turns more dovish 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks slumped again. The drivers were an increase in the refinery rate and a huge jump in exports. What’s more, this occurred despite production rising. We expect that as refineries come out of... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Equity loans won’t prevent construction downturn It will be at least 18 months before any meaningful boost to construction from the equity loan scheme is felt. In the meantime, the softness of new home sales means that new construction is set to... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the EM export slowdown The most notable explanation behind the recent sharp slowdown in EM export growth is the fall in commodity prices. But there are signs that softer global demand has also taken its toll. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Explaining weak investment and strong employment The current divergence between weak business investment growth and strong employment growth won’t last as it’s largely due to the uncertainty caused by Brexit. If there’s a no deal Brexit, both will... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update When will standard variable rates rise? Despite two past rate hikes, lenders’ standard variable mortgage rates are barely higher than in 2017. But we think SVRs will be more responsive to the further hikes likely to come in 2019 and 2020. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Given the weak start to the year, it looks like Russian GDP growth is shaping up to be weaker in Q1 than in Q4. But February’s activity data were more encouraging, and it does at least appear that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Iceland appear even less likely As we expected, weak economic data and a recent pick-up in the króna contributed to the Central Bank of Iceland leaving interest rates on hold today. While it maintained a hawkish bias in its... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) Global aluminium production has stuttered so far in 2019, but we think that this will merely be a lull, as new capacity comes on stream and pollution controls end in China. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The 10-year Bund yield may be heading to zero Growing safe-haven flows in 2019 and the ECB re-starting its net asset purchases in 2020 may mean that the yields of “core” European government bonds (EGBs) fall further over the next two years. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
