We have cut our forecast for Swiss GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 1.0%. This leaves us broadly in line with the government’s recently-revised forecast for 2019, but we think its forecast for GDP growth in 2020 is too optimistic. Meanwhile, the pick-up in core inflation in Norway in February bucked a trend of otherwise subdued inflation pressures in the rest of the Nordics. The Norges Bank is almost certain to raise interest rates to 1.00% at its policy meeting next week, but we suspect that rates will then be kept on hold until mid-2020.
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