The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So it still makes sense to have different scenarios for the economy based on different Brexit outcomes. But we have altered one of our scenarios so that it is based on a longer 12-month delay. In that scenario, we think the Bank of England would raise interest rates this summer.
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