Europe Chart Pack Economy close to stalling We suspect that GDP increased by only 0.1% in the first quarter of this year. The divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors has, if anything, increased, and this in turn has... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Returns from Italian assets to underwhelm Driven by falls in capital values, total returns from office and retail assets in Italy are forecast to be at the bottom of the euro-zone pack. Industrial returns will be better, but still just below... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI delivers another pre-election gift The RBI has delivered another pre-election gift to the government by lowering rates at a second successive meeting. A low level of headline inflation provided justification for the move. But with core... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Indonesia election unlikely to lead to stronger growth Although neither candidate in Indonesia’s presidential election has unveiled policy proposals that are likely to address the long-standing constraints which are holding back growth, another term for... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Jumps in net imports and US production meant that US crude stocks showed a stellar build this week. However, we expect that stocks will fall in the months ahead as refineries come back online. 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fiscal fragilities building Nigeria’s fiscal position is much weaker than widely believed. Government plans to focus on foreign borrowing will add to currency risk. And evidence suggests that the central bank is helping to... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Divergent surveys offer limited hope World GDP growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q1, but the latest business surveys suggest that growth has bottomed out in some parts of the world at least. March’s unchanged global manufacturing... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Weaker US growth spells trouble for corporate bonds and stocks 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China? Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Revisiting commodity price correlations Back in 2014, we examined explanations for the unusually high correlation seen between commodity and equity price moves during 2009-12. We concluded that while ultra-loose policy played a role, the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Slowdown will force Fed to reverse course We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% to 2.0% this year and only 1.4% in 2020. That weakness should convince the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp, with the first... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) The drop in mortgage interest rates to a 15-month low at the end of March helped spur a strong rise in demand for both home purchase and refinance mortgages. However, as was the case in January, we... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe? In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Supply concerns provide price support, for now The prices of industrial metals generally held on to year-to-date gains in March, due to supply fears coupled with investor optimism around a successful resolution to US-China trade talks. Even if a... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The give and take of Brexit The uncertainty caused by Brexit is helping some parts of the economy and hindering others, but as a whole the economy isn’t doing too badly. An apparent surge in stockbuilding ahead of the original... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Mar.) With the UK entering the most intense phase of Brexit uncertainty (so far!), the gloomy tone of March’s Markit/CIPS services survey is perhaps not too surprising. While we suspect the survey is... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
