Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and the IMF, inflation falls in the Philippines Pakistan looks to be close to agreeing the terms of a bailout package with the IMF. As the price for a deal, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More monetary easing still on the cards Markets no longer expect further monetary easing in China but we aren’t convinced. Headwinds to growth look set to resurface as support from fiscal front-loading wanes, at which stage the stimulus... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oversupply to act as a lid on the price of LNG The recent plunge in the spot price of Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) in part reflects warmer-than average winter temperatures, but there is a more structural problem in the form of excess supply... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Offices the bright spot for Manchester property In relative terms, Manchester has led the way in the recent regional recovery. Even though the outlook for the UK property market is weaker, we expect that Manchester’s regional outperformance will... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) February’s jump in the Halifax price measure was an outlier in a gloomy run of housing data, so it wasn’t a surprise that this has been partly reversed. The March figure is more in line with a... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s holds fire, SA institutional worries grow, weak PMIs Moody’s Ratings delayed the review scheduled for last Friday, leaving South Africa’s rating unchanged. Two new developments this week added to concerns about the country’s fiscal health. That said, we... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data were stronger than expected and suggest that German GDP rose in Q1. But that is largely due to a sharp increase in construction, which is very unlikely to be... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Policymakers to pause in April After making some fairly big changes in early March, the ECB will probably be happy to leave things as they are at next week’s meeting. President Draghi will have no choice but to give a downbeat... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Economic slowdown to weigh on housing market Mortgage interest rates have dropped sharply since the end of last year, and the 30-year fixed rate is set to fall to 4.2% by the end of 2019. But that won’t spur a significant rise in housing market... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weak recovery, rates lower for longer GDP growth in Latin America probably reached a trough in Q1, but the pace of recovery will be slower than most expect. The prices of most of the region’s commodity exports will either fall or remain... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB worrying about downside risks The account of the ECB’s 7th March monetary policy meeting makes gloomy reading. It confirms that policymakers were worried about downside risks to their growth and inflation forecasts, even though... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Faltering earnings likely to take a toll on the S&P 500 Our downbeat view of the US economy is at odds with analysts’ upbeat assessment of S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). This is a key reason why we forecast that the index will drop back sharply later... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth won’t last, oil prices, Aramco’s finances The raft of Q4 GDP data released this week showed that the region recorded its fastest growth in three years at the end of 2018. But a slowdown is now underway and is likely to intensify. Meanwhile... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Swiss pivot towards Asia reduces reliance on euro-zone The Swiss economy will not be immune to weak growth in the euro-zone over the coming years, but rising demand from Asia and the increased importance of sectors that are relatively insensitive to the... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
