Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The decline in net imports was one reason why US crude stocks surged again this week. However, we don’t think that this trend will continue as we expect the maintenance season for refineries to end... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in mortgage demand will not be sustained A drop in interest rates gave the mortgage market a shot in the arm in March, with applications for home purchase rising to close to a nine-year high. But we doubt that housing market activity is set... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Bond market points to trouble ahead for equities Equities in the US have continued to rise in the past month, but the recent inversion of parts of the Treasury yield curve and weak economic data doesn’t bode well for the US stock market. We forecast... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bund yields and the euro are likely to fall much further this year 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB will still need to do more to support the economy President Draghi’s comments at today’s press conference suggest that the ECB will announce the terms of the TLTRO-III programme in June, which we suspect will be more generous than previous TLTROs... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil producers to falter as Egypt strengthens We hold below-consensus growth forecasts for the Gulf States, where oil output cuts and renewed fiscal austerity will result in a sharp slowdown. We are, by contrast, relatively optimistic about the... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in core CPI inflation to a 13-month low of 2.0% in March underlines that there is little chance of inflation breaking out above the Fed’s target any time soon. We continue to... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields likely to rise despite dovish Fed Although the Fed’s dovish shift is likely to continue, we are sticking with our pessimistic view of the outlook for EM sovereign dollar bonds. That is because we expect credit spreads to rise sharply... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) As a group, OPEC is more than complying with its production quota, which helps to explain the recent rally in prices. That said, individual country compliance is quite poor with Saudi Arabia... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar.) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation, to 4.6%y/y in March, was driven by a rise in food and petrol inflation, both of which should prove temporary. Copom is likely to look through... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Feb.) The initial estimate of GDP was once again stronger than the survey evidence had suggested, providing a reassuring sign that the economy has weathered the Brexit chaos and overseas slowdown well. But... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The relatively high Egyptian inflation reading, of 14.2% y/y in March, reduces the probability that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next meeting in late May. But if we’re right... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Signs of stagnation across Scandinavia The latest indicators have added to the evidence that economic growth in much of Scandinavia slowed at the start of 2019. Indeed, after strong finishes to 2018, surveys suggest that GDP in Sweden... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) The pick-up in core inflation pressures in Norway in March suggests that the Norges Bank will stay in tightening mode for now. However, given our forecast for oil prices to fall this year, we think... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The rise in Czech inflation to a six-year high of 3.0% y/y in March was driven primarily by a pick-up in food inflation and probably is not enough to convince the central bank to hike rates next month... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
