US Economics Update Lower rates won’t prevent economic slowdown The sustained drop in Treasury yields since early November is one reason why we have upgraded our economic forecasts for 2020, but we do not think that will be enough to prevent economic growth... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italian & German equities likely to lag rest of the E-Z We think that euro-zone stock markets will generally fall in the rest of 2019 as global growth remains weak and appetite for risk wanes. Equities in Germany and Italy will fare particularly poorly, in... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Full effects of housing downturn yet to be felt The continued weakness of home sales suggests that March’s rebound in housing starts is unlikely to be sustained, while the subdued pace of house price inflation points to spending growth remaining... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weak sentiment weighing on the leisure sector Weak sentiment and higher vacancy rates point to a softening in leisure rental value growth and higher leisure yields in coming months. In turn, we think that capital values for leisure property could... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Recovery will stall in 2019, pick up next year Economic growth across Africa as a whole will remain weak in 2019 due to very poor performances from Nigeria and South Africa. Conditions will probably improve next year, but regional growth will be... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The decent 0.3% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in February suggests that the sector made a small positive contribution to growth in Q1, having exerted a drag of about 0.3%-pts in Q4. This... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households vulnerable despite robust labour market Despite the strength of the labour market, the precarious condition of households’ finances suggests that consumer spending growth will continue to disappoint. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to weak Q1 The latest activity figures add to the evidence that growth in South Africa softened at the start of 2019. Conditions will probably pick up later in the year, but growth will remain tepid. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s bond sale, Saudi risk premium Aramco’s bumper bond sale this week was seen by many as a vote of confidence in the Saudi economy and the government’s reform plans. But other indicators don’t back this up. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt policy easing We expect GDP growth across Emerging Asia to be very weak this year, with a number of countries set to grow at their weakest rates since the global financial crisis. A key drag will come from falling... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Alternative locations to limit German industrial rents A weak economic environment, and occupiers prepared to look outside traditional industrial locations which offer better value for money, will hold back the growth in prime industrial rents. But tight... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) Swedish inflation data for March, released this morning, lend further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep policy looser for longer than it and investors expect. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.) The latest RICS survey was slightly less gloomy than a month ago, but this is unlikely to signal any change in the underlying market. Given Brexit concerns, conditions are likely to remain weak near... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA tightening a double-edged sword for the ARS The Argentine central bank’s pledges to keep monetary policy tighter for longer have helped to stave off a run on the currency in recent weeks. But by keeping the economy weak ahead of October’s... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
