Global Economics Update Breaking down the slowdown in world trade A detailed breakdown of global exports suggests that the US-China trade war cannot be blamed for the slowdown in world trade. Instead, the underlying slowdown has featured a wide range of goods, with... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys add to evidence of labour market slowdown The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that investment growth is set to slow and provide further evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does oil at $70 mean for our price forecast? Most of the excess supply in the oil market has now disappeared as a result of the voluntary and involuntary output cuts, notably by OPEC member states. However, we expect higher prices to encourage... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The small rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.0% y/y, is likely to keep Banxico hawkish in the very near term. But the headline rate should resume its decline in H2, paving the way for interest... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would happen if there was a no deal Brexit? We are not forecasting a no deal Brexit on Friday. But Brexit has a tendency to bring the unexpected and a no deal is still the default. What’s more, although it may be low risk, it would be high... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices could drop sharply We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that economic growth will remain weak. This will probably encourage the ECB to make the terms of its new TLTROs – which are likely to be confirmed in June –... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A guide to this week With only four full days to go until the UK is due to leave the EU at 11pm on Friday 12th April, this week is potentially crucial. Of course, it’s impossible to know with Brexit whether what looks... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Did homeowners really surge in 2018? According to the Homeownership and Vacancies survey, homeowners surged to a record high in 2018. If true, that would throw doubt on the widely held view that the housing market slowed last year. But... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Earnings season the first real test for this year’s equity rally 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) Chilean inflation picked up from 1.7% y/y in February to 2.0% y/y in March, but we still think that the central bank is unlikely to restart its tightening cycle until 2021. 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could the Fed’s interest rate projections be a mistake? The Fed began publishing interest rate projections submitted by FOMC participants as far back as 2012, but in the past seven years only one maverick official has ever forecast a cut in interest rates... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) Strong PMIs across the Gulf were driven by higher oil prices rather than a sustained economic recovery. We expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter, though spending on the 2020 Expo will... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Private Sector Production (Feb.) The weak private sector production data from Sweden for February suggests that the economy is likely to have flat-lined at best in Q1. With core price pressures expected to remain subdued, we continue... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Softening land values point to lower industrial rents As a determinant of industrial rental values, the fact that land values are softening is consistent with our forecast for industrial rental value growth to slow further, especially in the Rest of the... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
