Global Economics Update Labour markets unlikely to loosen significantly Compared to previous slowdowns, the recent resilience of labour markets in advanced economies hasn’t been that unusual. While we expect subdued economic growth to take the shine off the performance of... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s first 100 days, rising regional inflation Jair Bolsonaro’s government has put forward an impressive set of plans to reform Brazil’s economy, but souring relations with congress reinforce our view that these will be diluted. Perhaps of more... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors still seem too upbeat about earnings growth As earnings season kicks off today in the US, we think that investors remain too optimistic about the global outlook for earnings per share (EPS) growth, given the prospects for the world economy... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weaker core inflation reinforcing Fed’s dovishness The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) The Teranet House Price Index showed a second consecutive monthly fall in house prices in March. The recent weakness of home sales and the increase in new home supply this year suggests that house... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) March’s rise in inflation probably won’t dissuade the RBI from cutting interest rates again at the next policy meeting. But with core inflation still elevated, the latest data underline the risks from... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The oversight on stockbuilding A lot of the chatter about how stockbuilding ahead of Brexit has boosted GDP growth in Q1 ignores the fact that businesses buy many components from overseas. That’s why imports have been rising at a... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen logistics still look a good bet The continued growth of Copenhagen’s logistics market, set against its low vacancy rate and limited new supply, means that it is one of our strongest markets for both rental growth and yield falls in... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish tone will need to be followed by action The ECB struck a moderately dovish tone at its policy meeting this week, but with economic growth still fairly slow it will need to follow its words with actions. Meanwhile, industrial production data... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity exports boom in March China’s commodity imports were generally weak in the first quarter of 2019, mirroring the slowdown in the wider economy. In contrast, commodity exports surged. We suspect that imports will remain... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stagnation in Sweden, Norges Bank hawkish Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s reform plans, Central European inflation The Turkish finance minister’s economic reform plan unveiled this week was light on details and provided worrying signs that the government may lean on state banks to drive an economic recovery... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A look ahead to Indonesia’s election With Joko Widodo around 20%-points ahead of Prabowo Subianto in the latest opinion polls, the result of Wednesday’s presidential election in Indonesia looks like a foregone conclusion. Mainly because... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth rose in March, but is still consistent with further economic weakness in the near term. We think that the People’s Bank will loosen policy further over coming months. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data suggest that output in the sector performed a little better in Q1 than at the end of last year, but the sector is still struggling. And with global economic... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak South Africa weighs on regional outlook Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered in Q1. As we argue in our latest Outlook, problems in South Africa are a key reason why we think that regional... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
