Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) February’s drop in manufacturing sales volumes adds to the signs that the economy had a poor month. While part of the weakness may reflect temporary factors, such as unseasonably severe winter weather... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Mar.) The improvement in investment activity in March was mostly driven by a one-off deal and with economic and political uncertainty to continue for longer, we do not expect to see a sustained pick up in... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would convince the Fed to cut rates? The economy is still in stronger shape than it usually was when the Fed started cutting interest rates in the past. Based on the Fed’s previous behaviour, however, the economic slowdown that we expect... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The labour market posted another decent month in February. However, we suspect that February could mark the peak for employment growth as the survey evidence turned down sharply in recent months. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria remained strong in March, and will probably stay above target over the coming months. Even so, we expect that will probably continue their controversial loosening cycle. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 1.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in February provides further evidence that the economy pulled out of recession in Q1. But the recovery is likely to be slow. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What do the ONS “Faster Indicators” tell us? The widespread use of digital technology should eventually make it possible to read how the economy is faring earlier and more accurately. The “Faster Indicators” released for the first time by the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that GDP growth will remain weak while core inflation could fall sharply. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada’s next move will be to cut interest... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors still seem too optimistic about reform in Brazil 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland set for a grand coalition, eventually The success of the nationalist Finns Party in yesterday’s parliamentary election is further evidence of the increasing fragmentation in European politics, while the tight result suggests that the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will weak investment undermine future growth? The recent Brexit-related fall in investment won’t be a big barrier to an eventual rebound in GDP growth. After all, investment hasn’t fallen by much and in the near term how efficiently capital is... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for the next big move It has been a relatively quiet week in most commodity markets, except for energy. Oil prices rose again, to over $70 per barrel for Brent, on news of military operations in Libya. However, we think at... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound to have only muted benefit The recent rebound in oil prices would normally be great news for the Canadian economy. But with regulatory concerns and capacity constraints likely to hold back investment in the energy sector and... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
