Emerging Markets Economics Update What’s behind the slump in commodity producers? The weakness in EM commodity producers at the start of the year seems to reflect a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. But the key point is that many commodity producers are yet to fully... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Extension of OPEC cuts not an open-and-shut case Market moves in the wake of this weekend’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting suggest that some investors expect OPEC to roll over output cuts when they expire in June. In contrast... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates again, further tightening to come Concerns about high inflation and the country’s large current account deficit mean today’s 150bp rate hike by Pakistan central bank (SBP) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi credit growth to remain subdued Credit growth in Saudi Arabia has started to pick up and, with monetary conditions set to be loosened in line with the US, it is likely to strengthen further over the next couple of years. That said... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 3.6% y/y in Q4 to 1.6% y/y in Q1 was due to weak domestic demand and problems in the copper sector, which hit exports. And while the consensus expects a strong... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Populists unlikely to rattle markets at EU elections We suspect that the European Parliament (EP) elections will not cause much reaction on bond markets, even if populist parties perform even better than expected. Recent elections in the EU suggest that... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: CFK shakes up the election The decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president in October’s election (with a more moderate Peronist at the top of the ticket) has... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the Coalition victory mean for Australia? The Coalition government’s surprise victory in the Australian federal election won’t make much of a difference for fiscal policy in the near-term but will result in smaller surpluses beyond 2022. It... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) April’s aluminium production data and the recent closure of Chinese alumina refineries suggest that the rebound in global primary supply growth that we had expected may be postponed. Despite this, we... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SEK sell-off and bond market rally have further to run The recent sell-off in the Swedish krona to decade lows against the euro has been driven by a combination of a flare-up in global trade tensions and a dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance. We... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigerian GDP growth slowed to 2.0% y/y in Q1, strengthening our view that the economy will perform worse than most expect over the course of 2019. We think that today’s weak result will encourage... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics will be a factor in OPEC’s output policy Softer April activity and spending data out of China and negative sentiment surrounding the impasse in US-China trade talks weighed on the prices of many metals this week. We had always suspected that... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shows signs of life The housing market showed some promising signs of life in April, with home sales rising strongly. House price inflation slowed, however, and is likely to remain very low. 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
